Hi Ray

Hope you had a great break and ready for this coming season. Will you be providing us with your great predictions again this season? Sure hope so

A-League 2019/20 Winner

Perth Glory $5.00
Sydney FC $5.00
Melbourne Victory $6.00
Melbourne City $8.50
Western United $12.00
Western Sydney Wanderers $14.00
Adelaide United $15.00
Newcastle Jets $19.00
Brisbane Roar $21.00
Central Coast Mariners $41.00
Wellington Phoenix $67.00

EPL starting soon
 

Thanks for the kind words. I'll send my Round 1 picks in a day or two. I start with the info from the end of last seaosn, so it's always good to be cautious for the first few weeks whilst the computer tries to make sense of the new season and the promoted teams. It blows it's fuse trying to make sense of the congested fixtures, but that's another story.

Good luck and hi to all my friends on Ozmium.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 1
 

Hi to all my soccer friends.

The EPL season is about to start. I start with last year’s ratings for the returning teams. For the promoted teams, I use the averages for the relegated teams. It’s a good idea to bet cautiously at first while the ratings adjust for the new season.

If you are new to my predictions, you can read the explanation that follows the predictions. It’s especially important for your sanity, to read my caution about betting when there are congested fixtures. We have had several weeks with congested fixtures when it would have been profitable to bet on all the underdogs. The fact that such a crazy strategy would work is reason enough to stay away from those weeks

Good luck with our new season. Last year was amazing, with only EPL teams in the finals of the Champions League and Europa League.

Now, it’s nearly time to have a pint and watch the first match.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Welcome back Ray
Got $4.35 for the reds early

Cheers Ray :)

EPL 2019/20 Winner

Man City $1.53
Liverpool $4
Tottenham $21
Man United $41
Chelsea $41
Arsenal $51

Others $151 & over

VAR in full swing already
49 checks in the opening seven EPL games

..we've lost another player to overseas teams..shane lowry
..jason davidson & andy keogh already gone..matthew spiranovic future unsure

EPL Round 2
 

In Round 1, my favourites won 6 of the 7 matches that weren’t drawn. On the other hand, there was a big surprise when Watford lost 0-3 at home to Brighton. Man U had a big win at home over Chelsea 4-0. Man City opened strong away beating West Ham away, 5-0. I mention those matches because my system makes the biggest adjustments early in the season to catch up with team changes. As a result, there were some big up and down adjustments because of the matches I just mentioned. It’s a good idea to be cautious for next two or three weeks to be sure the adjustments were justified.

The Rugby WC is coming. You can check the World Rugby rankings to get an idea what is in store. The higher rated teams have won 86% of the matches in the last 5 Rugby 15s World Cups. Not bad. You can use the same approach they do to convert rating difference into the probability of winning and get fair odds that way. I'll give you the equation as we get closer. The home advantage is worth 3 rating points (for Japan).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 3
 

The surprisingly one-sided wins of round 1 gave way to surprising ties in round 2. What does round 3 have in store? Time will tell.

The computer has been blowing its diodes trying to make sense out of this season. It told me that I have to be kidding that Chelsea in winless. I should check my results and rerun.

We certainly have to wait four rounds and maybe five before we can believe that the ups and downs are even close to averaging out so we have a good handle on who's who this season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Hopefully they're not silicon diodes Ray

Pre-season EPL managerial changes

Brighton & Hove Albion out - Chris Hughton in - Graham Potter
Chelsea out - Maurizio Sarri in - Frank Lampard
Newcastle United out - Rafael Benítez in - Steve Bruce

EPL Round 4
 

After the favourites won by unexpectedly large margins in round 1 and then drew unexpectedly in round 2, we should have known that they would lose unexpectedly in round 3. Put it this way, if you bet one unit on each of the 10 underdogs, you would have gotten back 31 units (a nice 210% profit), led by Newcastle paying 13.50, when it scored its first win of the season, away at Tottenham. Newcastle’s reward is 19th place.

We could talk about home advantage so far, but there is none. The home teams lost 7 games in round 3. The home and away teams have scored the same number of goals so far.

So, what about round 4? Maybe the craziness is over for now and the teams will play competitive soccer. Holding your breath for that might end in a trip to the hospital, but we can only hope.

Let’s see what round 4 has in store.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

Question - in your word doc attached it references NFL. Are you going to be giving us your great insights and superb odds for the season starting next week?

Kiwiz added a comment recently in the NFL forum

Sure hope so

Cheers
Fatcat

NFL Question
 

Hi Guys,

I last took on the NFL 10 years ago. It might be fun, but I would need a lot of time to run the last three seasons to get some starting ratings for a new season. The way I see it, my English Premier League and Super Rugby predictions already deal with enough sports sweating and bleeding (I mean for gamblers, the players sweat and bleed too, of course).

How about betting odds at the 2024 Olympics in Paris for break dancing. Now THAT would be a challenge.

Ray

EPL Week 5
 

Hi to all,

I am cautiously optimistic that my ratings have made sense of the season so far. For week 4, my favourites won 5 of the 6 matches that weren’t drawn. The loss and four draws probably sharpened the accuracy of the season’s ratings for the rest. The “cautious” part is that after 40 matches, the home teams have won 15, drawn 12 and lost 13: that’s not much home advantage at all, which is far from normal. Let’s be a bit cautious about week 5. We’ll see if order has been restored to a disorderly season.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 6
 

For round 5, I suggested that we should be cautious and see if the disorderliness was over. Nope. Second from the bottom Norwich beat second from the top Man City. If you bet 1 unit on each of the 10 underdogs, you would have more than doubled your money; because, Norwich paid 15.00, Southampton paid 2.87 and Bournemouth paid 3.00.

All the unexpected results, including draws, ought to have adjusted some ratings that were not quite right, if the teams will be consistent from now on.
Here come round 6. Again, let’s be careful until we see some consistency.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 7
 

So, did Round 6 show finally lack of craziness? Well, Man City got mad after losing to Norwich in round 5, inciting then to score 5 goals in the first 18 minutes against Watford. That had never happened in EPL history. In round 5, if you bet for all the underdog,s you would have made a 100% profit. Now that there is agreement between my rankings, the EPL table and bookie favorites about which teams are best, a bet for all the underdogs in round 6 didn’t make a 100% profit, but there would have been a 58% profit. The craziness persists. I don’t think we can expect other this season, but that does make the EPL interesting. So, here are are my predictions for round 7. Good luck!

Ray Stefani

The million dollar question. Cash out or hold???

Currently Ray's predictions for round 7 are all spot on, with only Leicester to win against Newcastle and ManU to win against Arsenal games outstanding. I took a multi for all 10 games. Cash out is currently sitting at a quarter of the total if it were to land, and cash out is 100x what I waged

Thoughts on Leicester winning?? Thoughts on ManU winning???

Decisions decisions

EPL Round 8
 

No crazies during Round 7. My favourites won all 7 matches that weren’t drawn. I hope Fatcat did well whichever path he chose. The last two matches went his way with a win by Leicester and at least a draw by ManU. It depends on how the Multi handles draws.

Here comes Round 8. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

Good going Ray

I decided after the Leicester game to cash out on the multi as I was not confident in ManU winning. Just as well because they ended with a draw against Arsenal

So a small wager gave me 196% return after I cashed out

Thanks for those predictions Ray. Great result for me

EPL Round 9
 

Round 8 set some kind of craziness record. Tottenham, Man U and Man city all lost. All three had played important mid-week cup matches so that is an obvious factor. Still, if you bet one unit on all 10 bookie underdogs, you would have cashed 6 bets worth 44 units. That has to be a record or nearly so.

Actually, my predictions did OK, amongst all the madness. Bookie underdog Burnley was my favorite to beat Everton and that cashed. Newcastle supporters cashed a value bet when Newcastle upset Man U.

There is nothing boring about this season, Good luck with Round 9, after a week off. After Round 9 the top teams will have mid-week cup matches prior to Round 10.

Ray Stefani

EPL Rounds 10 and 11
 

I will be away when Round 9 is played so I won't be able to send you my predictions for Round 10. Round 11 will head your way as usual after the dust settles from Round 10 .

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Free money anyone???
 

Back Spurs & Leicester to be relegated @ 501, lay @ 190 & 260 right now. Takes funds out of Betfair but you cannot lose.

EPL Round 11
 

As promised, the dust has settled on round 10 so here is round 11. Round 10's claim to EPL fame was that Southampton lost at home to Leicester 0-9, an EPL record for a home loss, or away win, depending on how you look at it.

We'll see what oddity lurks in round 11.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 12
 

We had a whole Round 11 with nothing crazy happening. I hope I didn’t jinx Round 12 by writing that. My favourites won 7 of the 8 non-drawn matches. Both value best cashed, thanks to Bournemouth and Leicester.

Let’s keep that up in Round 12.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round (lucky) 13
 

Liverpool and Leicester are at the top of the league table, at the top of the computer ranking table and provided successful value bets last week by winning in Round 12.

Liverpool are certainly asserting themselves.

With Lucky Round 13 upon us, we are approaching a danger zone of sorts. There will be congested fixtures during Rounds 14, 15 and 16. Teams will not have the usual week before and after an EPL round. Multiple EPL games will be played in the same week. Some teams will rest key players. Some will settle for a draw rather than push themselves. In the past, competition has been rather unpredictable during congested fixtures. You should take that into account when you decide whether to bet and how much.

Good luck with Lucky Round 13.

Ray Stefani

EPL Rounds 14 and 15
 

I will be away for about 1 week and will not be able to send you EPL Rounds 14 and 15, which are only a few days apart. The fixtures are congested as they will be in Round 16.

So far so good for (lucky) Round 13. Value bets on Leicester and Burnley have cashed.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

I realise that very few people on here are truly interested in making money, ie gambling is just a pastime but here goes anyway.
Right now, EPL relegation market, back Arsenal 251 & lay 190, back Man Utd 251 & lay 200, back Spurs 1001 & lay 400. Free money.

EPL Round 16
 

Hello to all. I am back for Round 16. It seems as though we just had Round 15. Oh, we did just have Round 15, so I better give you Round 16 while the teams catch their breaths for a congested round.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Update

Liverpool $1.19
Man City $10.50
Leicester $16.50
Chelsea $290

Others $650 & over

A-League Update

Sydney FC $2.94
Melbourne City $5.40
Perth Glory $8.20
Adelaide United $9.40
Western Sydney Wanderers $12
Western United $15
Melbourne Victory $34
Newcastle Jets $34
Brisbane Roar $41
Wellington Phoenix $60
Central Coast Mariners $80

EPL Round 17
 

You can always tell when we have congested fixtures. In Round 16, a one unit bet o each of the 10 underdogs would have returned nearly 14 thanks to upsets by Everton and ManU.

Here comes Round 17 with normal rest. Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 18
 

Oops, I wrote that there would be normal rest between Rounds 16 and 17. The EPL games were a week apart but six of the EPL teams had midweek matches in Europa League and Champions League competitions, so actually in 5 of 10 Round 17 matches, one or both teams had 1/2 week's rest. That explains why Chelsea played at mid week and then lost to Bournemouth, whose supporters cashed bets for decimal odds of 12.00.

Week 18 is with normal rest, followed by a flood of holiday fixtures which are congested for Rounds 19, 20, 21, 23 and 24.

Merry almost Christmas to all.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 19
 

Here come a flurry of matches. In Round 18, the teams seemed to be backing off before the Boxing Day matches, since a bet on the 9 favourites would have almost doubled your money with a return of 17. As I mentioned last week, Rounds 19, 20, 21, 23 and 24 are congested and perhaps Round 22 should be considered with caution as we probably should have for Round 18.

Merry Christmas to all!

Ray Stefani

Correction
 

I meant to write that if you bet on the 9 underdogs in Round 18, not the 9 favourites, that you would have almost doubled you money!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 20
 

It seems as though one round just ended and another starts tomorrow. Actually, that's true and it's true than Man City allowed Wolves to score in the 82nd and 88th minutes to win. Congested fixtures strike again.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 21
 

Here is your Happy New Year activity: check out the January 1 (England) EPL matches. The players ought to be exhausted and not just from celebrating with a pint or two at midnight.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 22
 

To give the teams time to catch their breaths, there is about a 10 day rest before Round 22 and then they will have about a week before Round 23.

To give you an idea of how debilitating these congested fixtures have been on favourites, here is the profit you would have had betting equally on all underdogs: Round 17 (+40%), Round 18 (+89%), Round 19 (+16%), Round 20 (-24%) and Round 21 (+38%).

Good luck,

Ray Stefani