Super Rugby Round 4
 

Round 4 will again test the new ratings and adjust where teams have moved up or down compared to last season. There have been some major changes in Rounds 1-3. Wait until round 5 to consider betting.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

Current market - Super Rugby

Crusaders $3
Chiefs $4
Hurricanes $12
Jaguares $13
Stormers $15
Blues $23
Sharks $23
Highlanders $34
Brumbies $41
Lions $126
Rebels $151
Reds $151
Bulls $201
Waratahs $201
Sunwolves $501

Super Rugby Round 5
 

We are getting used to adjustments during the first four rounds because teams change a lot over the break. This year's adjustments were among the largest ever. I think we now have a good understanding for this year's teams.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 6
 

After Round 5, I think we need to be cautious for at least another round. There were unexpected upsets in Round 5. Surprisingly, the Australian teams are now in the bottom half of the combined table. Lets see if the teams justify their ratings in Round 6 or make some moves. Bet conservatively.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 7
 

I think the ratings have settled. My favourites won 6 of 7 games, so we are as ready as we will ever be after adjusting for between-season changes. The Sunwolves even kept their opponent under 60 points for a change.

Good luck with Round 7.

Ray Stefani

Super Virus Round 8
 

The 14 day quarantine required after travel to Australia and New Zealand have caused SANZAR to cancel Super Rugby for "awhile", but we don't know how long "awhile" is. Round 8 was to have 7 matches, six of which involved international travel. The English Premier League says it will resume 4 April, but all matches there are withing England.

Round 7 went well, except for cancelling the Jaguars-Highlanders match. My favourites won 5 of 6. Two values bets cashed for Bulls and Sharks backers.

I think I see a value bet. According to US authorities, you have a 99.9% probability of surviving the flu. According to extensive testing in Korea, you have a 99.4% probability of surviving COVID-19 (they didn't just test people with severe symptoms). Since the sports leagues and airlines seem to think you will soon drop dead if you go to a sporting event and do something fun, I like the 99.4% probability of living. I would say that enjoying your life is a value bet.

I am trying to type this from 2 meters away, but my arms are not long enough.

Stay healthy,

Ray Stefani

Still no Super Rugby but NZ teams will play domestic series from 13 June
Our five Super Rugby teams - Blues,,Chiefs,,Hurricanes,,Crusaders & Highlanders will play each other home & away over 10 weeks,,with two matches every weekend in the 'Super Rugby Aotearoa’ tournament.

Starting up Super Rugby
 

It'll be really interesting if one round-robin of Super Rugby Aotearoa is played in empty stadiums and one is played with crowds to see what the psychological home advantage of a home crowd is. It'll be interesting to see how teams have changed in fitness and cohesion. Australia may have a similar domestic round-robin.

I had to look up "Aotearoa" which turns out to mean "New Zealand" in Maori. I found out that the Maori word for "Australia" is "Ahitereiria", although I figure that there are some unprintable names the Maori use when they play against Aussie teams.

Stay well everyone.

Aotearoa Round 2
 

I thought I would have a go at the Aotearoa Super Rugby, all-New Zealand competition. I updated my schedule too late to get it to you last week. All teams started where they left off after Round 7. I had the Highlanders as underdogs at home but worthy of a value bet which cashed nicely. I had the Blues to win at home, which they did, but there was no value bet on that game. This week, the Highlanders are favoured due to home advantage although they are lower rated. The crowds were huge last week, so that ought to give some home advantage. We have to see how the layoff affected the Crusaders.

I was curious about the name Aotearoa. Thanks to Google Translate and Google, I learned that Ao Tea Roa means a Long White Cloud. An early Polynesian boat noticed a long white cloud on the horizon and figured there must be an island there. That’s how they found North Island, so they named New Zealand Ao Tea Roa, Long White Cloud. I think the competition ought to be called Te Tini Nui, which means The Huge Crowd because that’s what they had last week. It was really fun to see a live sports event with people enjoying themselves.

Stay well, everyone!

Aotearoa Round 3
 

It's great to have live rugby again. Here are the next two games. Australia's version starts next month.

Aotearoa Round 3
 

Here we go with Round 3 of Aotearoa.

It’s hard to have good and bad luck average out with only two games per week, and maybe only one value bet, if that. When the Australian Super Rugby series starts, at least we will have four games per week.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Aotearoa Round 4 and AU Round 1
 

Be cautious because we don't know how the layoff has affected the Australia teams. The Western Force are an even bigger mystery next week.

Here comes Round 4 of Aotearoa, complete with fans!

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Aotearoa Round 5 and Australia Round 2
 

The Western Force now re-enters competition. I took their last rating from the end of the 2017 season, but we have no idea how good the team is today. It will take 3 or 4 games to have a good idea, so be cautious with them until later.

The rating system takes the season as a whole, not just the recent Aotearoa matches and the Australian matches
.
Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 13 (AOTEAROA Round 6 and AU Round 3)
 

There are many of reasons to be cautious when betting. We need at least this week and next week to get a good handle on the strengths of the Australian team, post-Covid. The Western Force haven’t played recently. They have affected the Waratahs rating from last week and this week they will affect the Reds. After week 4, ratings ought to be more accurate. The whole season is counted.

The home teams have only outscored visitors by 6 points for the 14 games since we restarted. That’s 0.4 points per game. That indicates a big change playing under Covid conditions. There had been more than a 4-point advantage per game, playing at home, before Covid. I may have to change the home advantage for the rest of the season.

Good luck and good health

Ray Stefani

We will never know Ray. The Sunwolves was disbanded on 1 June. They were in discussions to take part in the Super Rugby AU but due to travel restrictions were unable to do so.

Those Sunwolves
 

I wrote that before Round 1. The Sunwolves started great in Round 1, winning over the Rebels. Then, in true Sunwolves fashion, they lost the next five before the season was halted, thanks to the toughest opponent ever, Covid. I kept the season rolling, statistically speaking, with AOTEAROA and AU competitions. The ratings are cumulative for all games played, including the rejuvenated Force. Here are all 16 ratings. The Sunwolves are last. Too bad. Like you wrote, we will never know if they could have had a comeback in AU competition..

Computer Ratings
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PLACE TEAM RATING
1 Crusaders(N) 106.4
2 Sharks(S) 104.3
3 Blues(N) 103.1
4 Hurricanes(N) 100.3
5 Jaguars 99.6
6 Stormers(S) 98.2
7 Chiefs(N) 97.4
8 Brumbies(A) 96.2
9 Reds(A) 94.0
10 Bulls(S) 90.3
11 Highlanders(N) 90.3
12 Rebels(A) 89.8
13 W.Force(A) 84.7
14 Waratahs(A) 82.9
15 Lions(S) 82.1
16 Sunwolves 67.1


Super Rugby Round 14 (AOTEAROA Round 7, AU Round 4)
 

I mentioned a few weeks ago, that since restarting, the home advantage has dropped quite a bit, point-wise, from 4.7 points per game down to 1. I reran the rounds since we restarted and got better results by a little bit. This week's predictions are with the lower home advantage.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 15 (AOTEAROA Round 8, AU Round 5)
 

In 22 games since the restart, the visitors have now outscored the home teams. Three of four visitors are favourites this week, so the odd trend should continue.

Good luck in this weirdest of years.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 16 (AOTEAROA Round 9, AU Round 6)
 

AOTEAROA is winding down, with one round remaining after this round. AU will have 4 more rounds followed by two playoff rounds.

The oddity is home disadvantage. Visitors have outscored the home teams by 2 points per game for the 26 games since we restarted. The good news is that 80% of my favourites have won. There have been rather few value bets and that is a problem when you want to have good and bad luck average out.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 17 (AOTEAROA Round 10, AU Round 7)
 

Last week I mentioned that the home teams had been outscored by the visitors for the 26 games since the restart. In round 16, my two away favourites both lost, but the home team Rebels and Waratahs both cashed value bets, so I am happy with that. All four home teams won, outscoring the visitors by 64 points to go ahead point-wise for the new season.

Here comes the last AOTEAROA round. AU has five more rounds after this week.

Good luck and also keep beating COVID,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 18 (AU Round 8)
 

Covid won one game in round 17, beating the Blues and Crusaders who were given an official draw. AOTEAROA is now over.

Five AU rounds remain: rounds 8, 9, and 10, followed by 2 two playoff rounds.

The Force hasn't lived up to its name, but then they were just thrown together, so we shouldn't expect much.

Good health,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 19 (AU Round 9)
 

I don't think we have to worry about the Force's playoff chances, but playing them sure helps other teams.

With only two games per week, you may only have one value bet. Luck can't even out over several bets, so it may be best not to bet unless you have a really strong feeling about a game.

After AU Round 10, the playoffs start with one game for each of the final two weeks.

Good luck and stay well,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 20 (AU Round 10)
 

We are down to the last AU round before the playoffs. The Reds and Brumbies are in the playoffs, so they don't care what happens in their match, but they sure don't want any injuries.

With a win and bonus point against the hapless Force, the Rebels will make the qualifying final versus the Reds. We'll see if the Force can surprise us and muster a decent enough game to end with at least some credibility, by stopping that bonus point.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 21 (AU Qualifying Final)
 

The Force showed a lot of integrity, considering the way they played their final match after poor results earlier. They didn’t just deny the Rebels of a bonus point: they nearly kept the Rebels out of the playoffs altogether. It took that last minute try and score-difference-tie-breaker conversion to put the Rebels through.

The last games should be pretty entertaining. Then comes the real guesswork. What will Super Rugby look like in 2021?

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

Thanks for all your input Ray
Much appreciated

At this point in time Ray with Covid-19 continuing to make international travel an unlikely conveyance through the early part of next year,,at the very least,,it seems likely that both NZ & Australia will open the 2021 season with “local” franchise competitions

Then possibly conclude with a trans-Tasman finals-type playoffs series.
Maybe Japan could also be included in this,,should the pandemic,,politics & timing allow.

Super Rugby Round 22 (AU Final)
 

Here comes the last prediction for the “season” or whatever we just had. We should see a really competitive final.

So, what will 2021 bring for super rugby. Here is what I would like to see, so much so, that I sent a detailed suggestion to SANZAAR. Considering that travel restrictions won’t be ending any time soon, I’d like to see the season start with simultaneous 10-week domestic double round robins for Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. If Australia sticks with the Force, then NZ and Australia would both have completely domestic competition. SA has to decide if they like SANZAAR or SANZAR, the extra “A” being Argentina in their 10 weeks.

Next, the top three in each country would be shuffled into three groups where the number three from one country would play at the number two in another country with the winner would play at the number one in the third country. The three number ones would play a round robin for the championship. I gave them some ways to work around quarantines. It was worth a try.

IF SA bugs out, then the Trans-Tasman AU-NZ version of what I wrote above could be played, as was suggested in comments.

Stay well everyone and I’ll see you next “season”.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby 2021, Round 1
 

Hi to all,

Here we go for another fun Super Rugby season. I suppose we can’t call the organization SANZAAR anymore because the SA (South Africa) and an A (Argentina) are gone. It’s NZAR, I suppose.

We will start the way we ended last season. There will be separate double round-robin tournaments for Australia and New Zealand. That will take 10 rounds each of two games per week. The schedule is slightly off so we start with one round of two Australian games, nine rounds of four games each and one round when New Zealand finishes their tournament.

After those 40 games comes a remarkable 25 game Trans-Tasman competition. Each Australian team plays each New Zealand team over 5 weeks of 5 games each. For weeks 1, 2, 4 and 5, teams play twice at home and twice away. In the middle comes week 3, where all games are played at one location over a weekend. The details haven’t been revealed.

The season will end with a championship game between the top two teams in the combined table, as hosted by the top team.

I am trying to imagine having a COVID breakout and trying to clear a stadium of rugby fans. There would probably be more scrums than in the game.

Good luck and good health to all!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby-Round 2
 

Here is our first full week of four matches.

For the first 3 rounds or so, always be cautious to see if if the teams are playing as expected from last season's ratings, since players, coaches and strategy can change. We are off to a good start, considering that both favourites won last week.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 3
 

So far so good: all six of my favourites have won.

Considering that there was so little time between seasons, it makes sense that team ratings wouldn't change much from last season’s ratings. Also, they just finished last season’s domestic round-robins and are starting this season's domestic round-robins, so again, there is continuity we don’t usually have.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 4
 

So far so good. Nine of my 10 favourites have one. Force followers cashed a value bet last week.

Here is Round 4. Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 6
 

Something seems to have happened to my posting of Round 5. I don't see it. My apologies.

Here is Round 6.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 7
 

The ratings got shuffled a bit due to big upsets of the Highlanders and Blues in Round 6.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 8
 

The Highlanders rather spectacularly made up for their Round 6 upset loss with a major upset win over the Crusaders. I am surprised that my computer did not say "Correct score and re-enter".

Here is Round 8

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 9
 

After Rounds 9, 10 and 11 finish AU and Aotearoa, we will be treated to five rounds of Trans-Tasman matches.

In Round 8, Force supporters were treated to a value bet payoff off with decimal odds of 3.75.

Good luck with Round 9,

Ray Stefani

Corrected Super Rugby Round 9
 

The schedule I copied from SANZAAR before Round 1 was wrong for Round 9. The Rebels are home to the Brumbies in Round 9. Be sure to use this prediction and not my last one. The other three games are unchanged.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 10
 

I don't usually like having half of my favorites lose but that was just fine for Round 9. The people that placed value bets on the underdog Highlanders and Chiefs cashed those bets. That made the week's profit 75% on turnover, bringing the season profit to 32% on turnover.

Good luck with Round 10.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 11
 

For Week 11, we have the only semifinal AU game and the last (8th) AOTEAROA round. In following week we will have the championship games for AU and AOTEAROA followed by five rounds of Trans-Tasman games.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby AU and AOTEAROA Championship Games
 

He are the two championship games to be followed by the Trans-Tasman series. Enjoy the games.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani