Rugby World Cup Predictions from World Rugby
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The spacing was garbled hopelessly when I tried to paste the word document into the message. I tried changing to pdf but the file was too large for Ozmium. I will attach again and hope the new link will work.
Ray Stefani |
Rugby World Cup, one more time
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I just noticed that when I upload my soccer and rugby predictions, I have been reusing a file that uses the older version of Word, so I send a .doc file. This time I uploaded the newer version of Word, a .docx file. Maybe Fatcat and others might not have the new version of Word so that's why Fatcat could not use the link. I attached the World Rugby WC predictions converted to .doc.
Ray Stefani |
Thanks Ray
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Latest market World Cup Winner
New Zealand $2.50 South Africa $5.50 England $5.80 Ireland $12.50 Wales $15 Australia $19 France $41 Scotland $100 Argentina $81 Japan $301 Fiji $540 Samoa $1001 Others $2001 & over |
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Thx Ray This one worked for me. I normally use my iPhone Safari to access it and your previous links weren’t working. On my desktop at home all links work perfectly Thx |
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also thanks for that info ray |
world cup pool-c
france $1.87 v argentina france v argentina +5.5 $1.62 |
world cup pool-b
new zealand $1.51 v south africa new zealand v south africa +10.5 $1.53 |
world cup pool-a
ireland -4.5 $1.62 v scotland ireland v scotland +11.5 $1.62 |
RWC,,who are the heavies?
Tonga have both the heaviest player & heaviest forward pack in Japan Tonga's pack average forward weight at 118.53kg The All Blacks' average weight is 114kg with the English slightly heavier at 115.4kg The average weight for a player across all forward packs is 112.37kg Heaviest players Ben Tameifuna (Tonga) – 153kg Taniela Topou (Australia) – 135kg Michael Alaatoa (Samoa) – 132kg Eroni Mawi (Fiji) – 131kg Tomas Francis (Wales) – 130kg Leroy Atalifo (Fiji) – 130kg Ofa Tu'ungafasi (New Zealand) – 129kg Atu Moli (New Zealand) – 127kg Billy Vunipola (England) – 127kg |
world cup pool-d
australia +3.5 $1.91 v wales australia v wales $1.85 |
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Market update New Zealand $2.32 England $5.75 South Africa $5.80 Wales $11.50 Ireland $16.50 Australia $23 France $40 Scotland $200 Argentina $240 Japan $251 Italy $1001 Others $2001 & over |
world cup pool-a
japan +7.5 $1.61 v scotland japan v scotland $1.67 |
RWC
Not really surprised Japan through to the final 8
15 players in their 31-man squad having qualified on the basis of three-year residency They've done their homework ;) |
Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals
I was curious what would happen when I posted fair odds for the 40 group-phase matches of the Rugby World Cup before game 1, using the World Rugby Ratings and their method of getting the probability of winning. After I posted, I looked at the then bookie odds posted for all 40 matches. I only found 6 value bets, one of which got cancelled by the typhoon. Of the remaining 5, 3 cashed for a 63% profit on turnover. The 3 profitable matches were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentine and Wales beat Australia. The losses were when South Africa lost to New Zealand and the USA lost to Tonga.
I just took the updated ratings posted by World Rugby. Here are what the fair odds would be, using the World Rugby Ratings and adding 3 points to Japan’s rating for the World Rugby home advantage. England 1.37 versus Australia 3.71 New Zealand 1.33 versus Ireland 4.04 Wales 1.14 versus France 7.97 South Africa 1.87 versus Japan 2.14 Good luck, Ray Stefani |
Thankyou Ray
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Market update New Zealand $2.22 South Africa $4.70 England $6.40 Wales $12 Ireland $24 Australia $32 France $44 Japan $67 |
england -4.5 $1.53 v australia
england v australia +10.5 $1.91 |
new zealand -9.5 $1.91 v ireland
new zealand v ireland +15.5 $1.53 |
wales -5.5 $2.00 v france
wales v france +7.5 $1.91 |
japan +20.5 $1.62 v south africa
japan v south africa -16.5 $1.91 |
If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix. |
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England's game plan was simple. Territory. If in our own half then kick it to the other end. They just decided that could defend and mistakes would eventually come. They did a great job executing it. I thought NZ would change their game plan second half to kick it down Englands end but they decided to play with ball in hand and I think this cost them. There were just too many mistakes. |
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Unlikely, Jones contracted with England till 2021 |
World Cup Final and Third Place Games
If you think you or someone you know is too small for some sport, think about scrum half Faf de Klerk who we will see in the Rugby World Cup Final, playing for South Africa against England. He’s 172cm tall and weighs 88kg. The physios are all bigger. De Klerk will be all over the pitch.
The latest World Rugby rankings have the top four, in order as: England, South Africa, New Zealand and Wales. Wwe can calculate fair odds using their system. England 1.82, South Africa 2.22 New Zealand 1.57, Wales 2.75 Enjoy the final. A few pints might disappear. Cheers, Ray Stefani |
rwc
new zealand -17.5 $1.67 v wales new zealand v wales +25.5 $1.62 |
rwc
england -4.5 $1.72 v south africa england v south Africa +9.5 $1.67 |
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de Klerk was brilliant even tackling the biggest of the Pommie forwards, a wee magic man. That was a fantastic result, the pub I was at was rocking and we were all cheering on the Boks:D |
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Well it's all over And the final rugby world rankings (top 10) 1. South Africa 2. NZ 3. England 4. Wales 5. Ireland 6. Australia 7. France 8. Japan 9. Scotland 10. Argentina |
World Cup Wrap-up
What a great final! That was worth every pint. Kudos to Springboks Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, among many, many others.
I didn’t know what to expect when I used the World Rugby ratings to calculate fair odds for the Rugby World Cup. The ratings did really well. I posted fair odds for the 40 group stage games, using the pre-world cup ratings. I used their updated ratings to give you the 4 quarter final games and later the first place and third place games. I found 6 value bets from the 46 games, 4 of which cashed for an 81% profit on turnover. The winning bets included South Africa over England in the final. Earlier winning bets were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentina and Wales beat Australia. Losing value bets were when the USA failed to beat Tonga and South Africa failed to beat New Zealand. If you want to use the World Rugby ratings yourself for an international, just add three rating points to the home team rating. The probability of a team winning (after adjusting the home team rating) is P = 0.5 + (team rating – opponent rating)/20. Limit that to the range .5 to .95. The fair decimal odds would be 1/P. Good luck to all, Ray Stefani |
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Thanks Ray |
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Hi Ray You going to have a crack at Super Rugby again this year? Hope so. Look forward to your great predictions for 2020 Cheers |
Super Rugby hi from Ray
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Hi Fatcat. Thanks for the reminder. Sure, I wouldn't miss Super Rugby for anything. I'm starting the new season setup right now! Cheers, Ray |
Super Rugby Round 1
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Here we go with another entertaining season.
My ratings start where we left off after last year's final. It takes about 4 weeks to adjust to all the new players and coaching ideas. Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know. Cheers, Ray Stefani |
Cheers Ray,,thanks
Would you believe,,every single player contracted to the Sunwolves last season,,bar three,,is no longer at the club Those remaining are Jaba Bregvadze,,Tom Rowe & Hencus van Wyk Most interesting addition is Ben Te’o He is a veteran of eight NRL seasons & three State of Origin series Switched to Rugby in 2014,,playing for Leinster,,Worcester Warriors & Toulon since Will probably be their player to watch |
NZR will persist with Super Rugby rest protocols for top players this year
Two games off (on top of each teams' two byes) No more than six games played in succession (byes and rest weeks reset the count) A 180-minute cap on game time over the first three rounds & including load building e.g. 40 minutes,,then 60,,then 80 |
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Could be some changes to the rest policies next season though with three fewer regular season games for each team & the switch to the round robin format |
Super Rugby 2020 winner
Crusaders $3.20 Chiefs $5.00 Hurricanes $9.00 Blues $14.00 Highlanders $15.00 |
Super Rugby Round 2
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Those Sunwolves off-season moves really aid off in Round 1. If anyone bet on them , they got a nice 6.00 payoff.
Here comes Round 2 with the usual comment that we need to see how the ratings move due to off-season changes for a few weeks. The plan for a round-robin schedule next season has some issues that come with it. The home-away schedule only balances after every two seasons. Australia teams will have 3 games against domestic opponents instead of 6. NZ teams will have 4 games against domestic opponents instead of 8. Good luck, Ray Stefani |
Super Rugby Round 3
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Round 2 had some exciting moments. The Chiefs beat the Crusaders and have made a lot of upward movement since the end of last season. The Hurricanes made a stirring comeback in the last minutes to beat the Jaguars away.
We need to give the teams two more rounds to make sure the big ratings movements over the first two Rounds are justified. Enjoy Round 3. Ray Stefani |
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