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Raystef5845 19th September 2019 03:16 AM

Rugby World Cup Predictions from World Rugby
 
1 Attachment(s)
The spacing was garbled hopelessly when I tried to paste the word document into the message. I tried changing to pdf but the file was too large for Ozmium. I will attach again and hope the new link will work.

Ray Stefani

Raystef5845 19th September 2019 03:52 AM

Rugby World Cup, one more time
 
1 Attachment(s)
I just noticed that when I upload my soccer and rugby predictions, I have been reusing a file that uses the older version of Word, so I send a .doc file. This time I uploaded the newer version of Word, a .docx file. Maybe Fatcat and others might not have the new version of Word so that's why Fatcat could not use the link. I attached the World Rugby WC predictions converted to .doc.

Ray Stefani

Sands 19th September 2019 08:22 AM

Thanks Ray

Sands 19th September 2019 08:32 AM

Latest market World Cup Winner

New Zealand $2.50
South Africa $5.50
England $5.80
Ireland $12.50
Wales $15
Australia $19
France $41
Scotland $100
Argentina $81
Japan $301
Fiji $540
Samoa $1001

Others $2001 & over

Fatcat 19th September 2019 08:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
I just noticed that when I upload my soccer and rugby predictions, I have been reusing a file that uses the older version of Word, so I send a .doc file. This time I uploaded the newer version of Word, a .docx file. Maybe Fatcat and others might not have the new version of Word so that's why Fatcat could not use the link. I attached the World Rugby WC predictions converted to .doc.

Ray Stefani


Thx Ray

This one worked for me. I normally use my iPhone Safari to access it and your previous links weren’t working. On my desktop at home all links work perfectly

Thx

sportzcaster 20th September 2019 08:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by sportzcaster
worked for me

also thanks for that info ray

sportzcaster 20th September 2019 08:23 AM

world cup pool-c

france $1.87 v argentina
france v argentina +5.5 $1.62

sportzcaster 20th September 2019 08:28 AM

world cup pool-b

new zealand $1.51 v south africa
new zealand v south africa +10.5 $1.53

sportzcaster 21st September 2019 09:22 AM

world cup pool-a

ireland -4.5 $1.62 v scotland
ireland v scotland +11.5 $1.62

kiwiz 27th September 2019 04:18 AM

RWC,,who are the heavies?

Tonga have both the heaviest player & heaviest forward pack in Japan
Tonga's pack average forward weight at 118.53kg
The All Blacks' average weight is 114kg with the English slightly heavier at 115.4kg
The average weight for a player across all forward packs is 112.37kg

Heaviest players

Ben Tameifuna (Tonga) – 153kg
Taniela Topou (Australia) – 135kg
Michael Alaatoa (Samoa) – 132kg
Eroni Mawi (Fiji) – 131kg
Tomas Francis (Wales) – 130kg
Leroy Atalifo (Fiji) – 130kg
Ofa Tu'ungafasi (New Zealand) – 129kg
Atu Moli (New Zealand) – 127kg
Billy Vunipola (England) – 127kg

sportzcaster 29th September 2019 10:58 AM

world cup pool-d

australia +3.5 $1.91 v wales
australia v wales $1.85

Sands 1st October 2019 11:41 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
Latest market World Cup Winner

New Zealand $2.50
South Africa $5.50
England $5.80
Ireland $12.50
Wales $15
Australia $19
France $41
Scotland $100
Argentina $81
Japan $301
Fiji $540
Samoa $1001

Others $2001 & over

Market update
New Zealand $2.32
England $5.75
South Africa $5.80
Wales $11.50
Ireland $16.50
Australia $23
France $40
Scotland $200
Argentina $240
Japan $251
Italy $1001

Others $2001 & over

sportzcaster 13th October 2019 07:49 PM

world cup pool-a

japan +7.5 $1.61 v scotland
japan v scotland $1.67

punts2 14th October 2019 04:33 AM

RWC
 
Not really surprised Japan through to the final 8
15 players in their 31-man squad having qualified on the basis of three-year residency
They've done their homework ;)

Raystef5845 15th October 2019 04:25 AM

Rugby World Cup Quarter Finals
 
I was curious what would happen when I posted fair odds for the 40 group-phase matches of the Rugby World Cup before game 1, using the World Rugby Ratings and their method of getting the probability of winning. After I posted, I looked at the then bookie odds posted for all 40 matches. I only found 6 value bets, one of which got cancelled by the typhoon. Of the remaining 5, 3 cashed for a 63% profit on turnover. The 3 profitable matches were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentine and Wales beat Australia. The losses were when South Africa lost to New Zealand and the USA lost to Tonga.

I just took the updated ratings posted by World Rugby. Here are what the fair odds would be, using the World Rugby Ratings and adding 3 points to Japan’s rating for the World Rugby home advantage.

England 1.37 versus Australia 3.71
New Zealand 1.33 versus Ireland 4.04
Wales 1.14 versus France 7.97
South Africa 1.87 versus Japan 2.14

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

kiwiz 16th October 2019 03:06 AM

Thankyou Ray

Sands 17th October 2019 09:00 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
Market update
New Zealand $2.32
England $5.75
South Africa $5.80
Wales $11.50
Ireland $16.50
Australia $23
France $40
Scotland $200
Argentina $240
Japan $251
Italy $1001

Others $2001 & over

Market update
New Zealand $2.22
South Africa $4.70
England $6.40
Wales $12
Ireland $24
Australia $32
France $44
Japan $67

sportzcaster 19th October 2019 08:00 AM

england -4.5 $1.53 v australia
england v australia +10.5 $1.91

sportzcaster 19th October 2019 07:08 PM

new zealand -9.5 $1.91 v ireland
new zealand v ireland +15.5 $1.53

sportzcaster 20th October 2019 01:26 PM

wales -5.5 $2.00 v france
wales v france +7.5 $1.91

sportzcaster 20th October 2019 07:55 PM

japan +20.5 $1.62 v south africa
japan v south africa -16.5 $1.91

Sporty 27th October 2019 10:10 AM

If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix.

UselessBettor 27th October 2019 11:27 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sporty
If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix.



England's game plan was simple. Territory. If in our own half then kick it to the other end. They just decided that could defend and mistakes would eventually come. They did a great job executing it.

I thought NZ would change their game plan second half to kick it down Englands end but they decided to play with ball in hand and I think this cost them. There were just too many mistakes.

gum stumpa 27th October 2019 04:24 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sporty
If Rugby Australia don't make every effort to secure the services of Tasmanian Eddie Jones to take over from Michael Cheika, they're crazy!
Will cost them but worth it, to get us back in the mix.

Unlikely, Jones contracted with England till 2021

Raystef5845 30th October 2019 10:55 AM

World Cup Final and Third Place Games
 
If you think you or someone you know is too small for some sport, think about scrum half Faf de Klerk who we will see in the Rugby World Cup Final, playing for South Africa against England. He’s 172cm tall and weighs 88kg. The physios are all bigger. De Klerk will be all over the pitch.

The latest World Rugby rankings have the top four, in order as: England, South Africa, New Zealand and Wales. Wwe can calculate fair odds using their system.

England 1.82, South Africa 2.22

New Zealand 1.57, Wales 2.75

Enjoy the final. A few pints might disappear.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

sportzcaster 1st November 2019 04:58 PM

rwc

new zealand -17.5 $1.67 v wales
new zealand v wales +25.5 $1.62

sportzcaster 2nd November 2019 02:15 PM

rwc

england -4.5 $1.72 v south africa
england v south Africa +9.5 $1.67

kiwi 3rd November 2019 06:50 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
If you think you or someone you know is too small for some sport, think about scrum half Faf de Klerk who we will see in the Rugby World Cup Final, playing for South Africa against England. He’s 172cm tall and weighs 88kg. The physios are all bigger. De Klerk will be all over the pitch.

The latest World Rugby rankings have the top four, in order as: England, South Africa, New Zealand and Wales. Wwe can calculate fair odds using their system.

England 1.82, South Africa 2.22

New Zealand 1.57, Wales 2.75

Enjoy the final. A few pints might disappear.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani


de Klerk was brilliant even tackling the biggest of the Pommie forwards, a wee magic man.
That was a fantastic result, the pub I was at was rocking and we were all cheering on the Boks:D

punts2 3rd November 2019 07:11 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sands
Wales are the new rugby world no. 1 ending the 10-year reign of the All Blacks

Current top 10
1. Wales
2. NZ
3. Ireland
4. South Africa
5. England
6. Australia
7. France
8. Scotland
9. Japan
10. Fiji

Well it's all over
And the final rugby world rankings (top 10)

1. South Africa
2. NZ
3. England
4. Wales
5. Ireland
6. Australia
7. France
8. Japan
9. Scotland
10. Argentina

Raystef5845 4th November 2019 04:26 AM

World Cup Wrap-up
 
What a great final! That was worth every pint. Kudos to Springboks Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, among many, many others.

I didn’t know what to expect when I used the World Rugby ratings to calculate fair odds for the Rugby World Cup. The ratings did really well. I posted fair odds for the 40 group stage games, using the pre-world cup ratings. I used their updated ratings to give you the 4 quarter final games and later the first place and third place games. I found 6 value bets from the 46 games, 4 of which cashed for an 81% profit on turnover. The winning bets included South Africa over England in the final. Earlier winning bets were when Japan beat Scotland, France beat Argentina and Wales beat Australia. Losing value bets were when the USA failed to beat Tonga and South Africa failed to beat New Zealand.

If you want to use the World Rugby ratings yourself for an international, just add three rating points to the home team rating. The probability of a team winning (after adjusting the home team rating) is

P = 0.5 + (team rating – opponent rating)/20.

Limit that to the range .5 to .95. The fair decimal odds would be 1/P.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

kiwiz 13th November 2019 05:07 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
If you want to use the World Rugby ratings yourself for an international, just add three rating points to the home team rating. The probability of a team winning (after adjusting the home team rating) is

P = 0.5 + (team rating – opponent rating)/20.

Limit that to the range .5 to .95. The fair decimal odds would be 1/P.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray

Fatcat 25th January 2020 10:42 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
What a great final! That was worth every pint. Kudos to Springboks Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard, among many, many others.

....

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani


Hi Ray

You going to have a crack at Super Rugby again this year? Hope so. Look forward to your great predictions for 2020

Cheers

Raystef5845 25th January 2020 04:03 PM

Super Rugby hi from Ray
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Hi Ray

You going to have a crack at Super Rugby again this year? Hope so. Look forward to your great predictions for 2020

Cheers

Hi Fatcat. Thanks for the reminder. Sure, I wouldn't miss Super Rugby for anything. I'm starting the new season setup right now!

Cheers,

Ray

Raystef5845 26th January 2020 06:45 PM

Super Rugby Round 1
 
1 Attachment(s)
Here we go with another entertaining season.

My ratings start where we left off after last year's final. It takes about 4 weeks to adjust to all the new players and coaching ideas.

Will the Sunwolves respond after having the World Cup to inspire them before they leave Super Rugby or will they be as inconsistent as last year.? We will soon know.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

kiwiz 27th January 2020 06:33 AM

Cheers Ray,,thanks

Would you believe,,every single player contracted to the Sunwolves last season,,bar three,,is no longer at the club
Those remaining are Jaba Bregvadze,,Tom Rowe & Hencus van Wyk

Most interesting addition is Ben Te’o
He is a veteran of eight NRL seasons & three State of Origin series
Switched to Rugby in 2014,,playing for Leinster,,Worcester Warriors & Toulon since
Will probably be their player to watch

kiwiz 27th January 2020 06:48 AM

NZR will persist with Super Rugby rest protocols for top players this year

Two games off (on top of each teams' two byes)
No more than six games played in succession (byes and rest weeks reset the count)
A 180-minute cap on game time over the first three rounds & including load building e.g. 40 minutes,,then 60,,then 80

kiwiz 27th January 2020 06:54 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiz
NZR will persist with Super Rugby rest protocols for top players this year

Two games off (on top of each teams' two byes)
No more than six games played in succession (byes and rest weeks reset the count)
A 180-minute cap on game time over the first three rounds & including load building e.g. 40 minutes,,then 60,,then 80

Could be some changes to the rest policies next season though with three fewer regular season games for each team & the switch to the round robin format

kiwiz 27th January 2020 07:10 AM

Super Rugby 2020 winner

Crusaders $3.20
Chiefs $5.00
Hurricanes $9.00
Blues $14.00
Highlanders $15.00

Raystef5845 2nd February 2020 12:35 PM

Super Rugby Round 2
 
1 Attachment(s)
Those Sunwolves off-season moves really aid off in Round 1. If anyone bet on them , they got a nice 6.00 payoff.

Here comes Round 2 with the usual comment that we need to see how the ratings move due to off-season changes for a few weeks.

The plan for a round-robin schedule next season has some issues that come with it. The home-away schedule only balances after every two seasons.

Australia teams will have 3 games against domestic opponents instead of 6. NZ teams will have 4 games against domestic opponents instead of 8.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Raystef5845 9th February 2020 04:37 PM

Super Rugby Round 3
 
1 Attachment(s)
Round 2 had some exciting moments. The Chiefs beat the Crusaders and have made a lot of upward movement since the end of last season. The Hurricanes made a stirring comeback in the last minutes to beat the Jaguars away.

We need to give the teams two more rounds to make sure the big ratings movements over the first two Rounds are justified.

Enjoy Round 3.

Ray Stefani


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