Thanks Ray,,Chur!

EPL round 19
 

You now have the 10 matches the EPL will play just before Christmas. Then, there are 10 more around Boxing Day, yet to come.

So, bottom-dweller Crystal Place, having been unable to score a single goal in 10 consecutive away matches somehow beat mid-table Leicester 3-0, at Leicester. They play away to West Ham next. Which Crystal Palace team will show up: the one that was scoreless in 10 away matches in a row or the one that beat Leicester there, 3-0. We will soon know.

Regardless of matches and bets, Merry Christmas to all of you and yours!

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 20
 

In my last weekend send, I questioned how mid-table Leicester (with a large value bet) could possibly lose at home to a bottom table Crystal Palace team which had been scoreless in their last 10 away matches. The answer came on Tuesday. Leicester was obviously jogging through the Crystal Palace match to put priority on the quarter-final League cup match at home on Tuesday against top table Man City. Leicester took Man City to penalty kicks before losing. Then, on Saturday, Leicester entertained number two Man U, holding them to a 3-3 draw. The Crystal Place match was obviously of no interest to Leicester. That is what make the EPL so frustrating. Form (and logical betting) goes out the window when a team jogs through an EPL match to put priority on a trophy in the League Cup, FA Cup, Europa League and Champions League. I wish EPL teams would put a warning on games when they plan to lack any competitive interest whatsoever.

Also, 5 matches were drawn of 10 in round 19, indicating some fatigue and a resulting agreement to share the points.

In spite of that frustration, I wish you all a very Merry Christmas!

Ray

EPL Round 21
 

Do you feel overworked once in a while? By 2 January, the EPL teams will have played 9 matches in about 38 days, about one match every 4 days. I am tired just thinking about it.

Happy New Year to all.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 22, already
 

In soccer as in life, Christmas is the time for giving, especially when so many soccer matches are clustered. Giving in the EPL means playing a nice friendly, non aggressive draw (maybe 0-0). We had 5 draws in 9 EPL matches, 4 draws being 0-0 and one being 1-1. Top table, top scoring Man U and Man City both played nice in 0-0 draws, where form meant nothing, as when teams give up league points to win cup matches during congested fixtures.

Happy New Year to all as we check out 11 more EPL matches.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 23
 

I have to agree with Pep Guardiola that the congested fixtures from late November through the New Year are tough on all the players. They finally do get a break. The next matches are to be played 13-15 January.

Good luck with Round 23 and have a great 2018. (I hope I have written 2018 on all my cheques.)

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 24
 

The teams finally got some rest. I got tired just tabulating how many matches they have played lately.

Good luck with round 24.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 25
 

The teams are getting so time to recover efore the next round,, then they will play two matches close together. Last week, my favourites won 6 of the 7 games that were not drawn.

Good luck with week 25.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 26
 

Last week I suggested that finally the EPL teams would have more than a week to recover before Round 25, with Round 26 following closely. I hadn’t noticed that there were FA Cup matches over the weekend just ended; so actually, the flurry of fixtures continued. Arsenal won a tough 2-1 FA Cup match over Chelsea during the weekend and then both teams tanked their midweek EPL matches. Swansea beat Arsenal 3-1 and Chelsea lost 0-3 to Bournemouth. Bournemouth supporters cashed 10.00 payoffs, which gives you an idea of how outlandish it was for Chelsea to lose at all, let alone by 3 goals.

The trick would be to find a way to guess when a team is going to tank EPL matches due to focusing on Cup matches, and then support the underdog. The word "guess" is the problem. If I had paid good money to watch a match when my team didn’t care, I would want my money back.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 27
 

This will show you what a crazy league the EPL is. I decided to evaluate what ought to be a stupid betting strategy: bet on a draw in every game. Since the bookies discount their fair odds by 7-10% to make a profit, making myopic bets like that ought lose 7-10%, or so I thought. I still had the bookie odds for 8 of the last 9 rounds. If you bet one unit bet on each of the 80 matches, the 27 draws returned 100.65 units for a 26% profit. Crazy!

I looked at all 78 value bets I calculated for rounds 6 through 26, because I still had bookie draw odds for the 78 matches. If you bet one unit on each of the 78 matches, the 30 draws returned 102.71 units for a 32% profit.
I think the reason there are more draws than the bookies expect is that both teams settle for a point every so often to rest, because they can’t play hard in all matches due to all those cup matches along with the 38 league matches. I’ll check that crazy scheme going forward.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 28
 

The next EFL matches have a gap so they can play FA Cup and League cup matches, meaning that some teams won't care much about the EPL matches and some will. The trick is to know which care and which will hardly show up.

Cheers,

Ray

Hi Ray Hows things ..Are you doing super rugby tips again mate..you were great to follow last yr

Darn right. They are posted in the Rugby Union forum. Check them out. Thanks for saying hi!

EPL Round 29
 

The last match of round 28 just ended. The next round starts 3 March.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 30
 

The EPL matches seem to be much more predictable now that teams are mostly finished with cup competitions and must now focus on the EPL.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Current world cup rankings

1. Brazil
2. Germany
3. France
4. Spain
5. Belgium
6.Argentina
7. Croatia
8. Portugal
9. Uruguay
10. England
11. Colombia
12.Egypt
13. Mexico
14. Serbia
15. Poland
16. Switzerland
17. Nigeria
18. Denmark
19. Iceland
20. Senegal
21. Peru
22. Morocco
23. Costa Rica
24. Japan
25. Russia
26. Sweden
27. Iran
28. South Korea
29. Australia
30. Tunisia
31. Saudi Arabia
32. Panama

EPL Round 31
 

Six of the attached matches predicted for Round 31 have been postponed due to various Cup Finals. Looking at my predictions, home matches by Burnley, Leicester, Man city, Swansea, Tottenham and West Ham are postponed. When the new dates are determined, I will predict those matches again.

Good luck,

Ray

EPL Round 32
 

There is actually a Round 32: no games are postponed this time. The dates for making up six postponed games have not been set.

Good luck with a real round this time.

EPL Round 33
 

The EPL played a round with no cup matches nearby so the teams really played to win. As a result, my favorites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not drawn and value bets wee cashed for West Ham and Burnley supporters.

Good luck with Round 33.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 34
 

We went from teams playing to win with 1 or 2 draws per week, back to having 5 draws this round. I located a value bet for Bournemouth that was drawn and a successful value bet for Burnley who won. Starting with Round 6, I found 91 value bets: 32 teams won, 32 drew and 27 lost. By using my betting suggestions to cover draws, 64 of 91 bets cashed, but the profit margin was low because we had to protect against draws, some of which were the result of mutual non-aggression pacts in the midst of crowded fixtures due to cup matches.

Good luck as we reach round 34

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 35
 

We have had a nice run of success. For Rounds 25 though 34, I identified 18 value bets. The team won 15, drew 2 and lost 1, so 17 of 18 bets cashed, following my suggestions for covering draws.

There is an oddity for Round 35. One of the postponed matches from Round 31 will be made up. Burnley will have to play twice. The postponed Burnley-Chesea match is being made up; but the scheduled Chelsea Huddersfield match now joins the postponed list.

Good luck with Round 35.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 36
 

In Round 35, all five of my favourites in non-drawn matches won. That leaves five matches that were drawn, including three where value bets were returned using my betting rules.

There are 36 matches left after round 36: two full rounds of 10 plus the six postponed matches.

Good luck with round 36.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 37
 

There is only one more round after this. There will be 16 games for the final round, 38, including 6 postponed matches.

In Round 36. my favourites won 6 of 8 non-drawn matches. The only value bet on Burnley resulted in a draw, so you should have gotten your money back using my betting suggestions.

Good luck with the penultimate round.

Ray Stefani

EPL Final Round 38
 

We are about to have a closing flurry of matches. There will be 16 matches in 6 days. The last six in my prediction list are the previously-postponed matches which are played first. The first 10 matches in my printout are the actual Round 38 matches. Only a few matches are important. A few have a bearing on playing in the Champions League, the Europa League and in relegation, for a few teams. The rest just close out the season.

Good luck as we close out the EPL for this season.

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray, doing EPL again this season? Your input was a big help last season, much appreciated

Wolverhampton Wanderers, Cardiff City & Fulham in, West Bromwich Albion, Swansea City & Stoke City out
Sky Blues in the red to do it again, according to bookies
Like The Reds & Spurs myself

Cheers Ray
 

Ditto

Ditto Ray. Look forward to your predictions

EPL 2018-19
 

I'm glad I could help. Thanks for the encouragement. Of course we had a lot of games when teams prioritized Cup over League, but I appreciate the kind words.

Sure, let's have another go. I will probably take one or two weeks to get the ratings to update for the new season, due to new players, managers and strategies. It is always a good idea to be very conservative for the first four weeks.

I'll let you know when the new ratings are ready.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 2
 

Thanks for your encouragement to have another go at the EPL.

I just cranked up the system and gave it a taste of the EPL with week 1. I was surprised that for non-drawn matches, my favourites won 7 of 8.

It does take about 4 weeks for the ratings to adjust to the new season. Here is week 2 to check out.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 3
 

This early EPL season continues to be a pleasant surprise. My favourites have won 14 of the 17 matches not drawn (that's 80%), including an upset win by Bournemouth against the bookie favourite West Ham.

Here are my odds for Week 3.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Good one ray ;)

EPL Week 4
 

Fun week. My favourites won all 7 matches that weren't drawn. For the season, that's 21 from 24, 88%. Let's keep that up.

Here come my Week 4 predictions and odds.

Good luck to all,

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 5
 

The next matches will be played 15-17 September.

So far so good. We have about a 10% profit on turnover. My favourites have won 84% of the matches that were not drawn. The betting trick I suggest to break even on a draw has been helpful. Eight matches have been drawn so far.

Good luck with week 5.

Ray Stefani

Good work Ray, thanks

..very helpful ray

EPL Week 6
 

Previously overachieving Watford ran into previously underachieving Man U. Man U's win moved their ratings more towards where we would expect.

Here is the oddity so far. After 50 matches, the home teams have won 21, drawn 9 and lost 20, which is not making the home ultras very happy.

Let's see what week 6 has in store for us.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 7
 

Five of my six favourites won the matches that were not drawn during round 6. The upset was the interesting one. Bottom-table Burnley somehow found it in themselves to beat fourth-place Bournemouth, not by a goal, but by a score of 4-0. That is what makes sports fun (and maybe frustrating, but not boring).

Good luck with round 7.

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 8
 

So far so good. My favourites have won 80% of the 54 matches that were not drawn. We had two good value bets last week for West Ham and Burnley supporters.

Good luck as we reach round 8,

Ray Stefani

EPL Round 9
 

The results were a bit mixed last week. My favourites won only 5 of 8 matches not drawn. There were winning value bets supporting Brighton but not Leicester. Two others resulted in draws, so that meant breaking even with the betting trick I suggested.

The craziest result was when Bournemouth played away against Watford. Bookmakers set Bournemouth as a big underdog paying 6.60. Bournemouth didn't just squeeze out a one goal upset, they won 4-0. Maybe the Watford team bus was stuck at a pub and they had to play fans.

Good luck with Round 9.

Ray Stefani