Super Rugby Quarter Finals
 

Back at the start of this season, I mentioned that the first few weeks might rough, as old ratings needed to be adjusted and there was a new alignment. The first weeks were a bit rough; but we sure ended strongly after that.

Of my last 14 favourites, 13 won. Starting with week four, of the 9 games where I picked a bookie upset, 7 were correct. I checked 99 games starting with week 4. I found 37 value bets, 14 of which cashed for a profit on turnover of 38%, the highest I have had in 23 seasons, 19 of rugby.

If you take the computer ratings for my top 8 and move one from each conference to the top, you get exactly the order of the 8 seeded playoff teams.

I hope you have enjoyed the season. I am giving you my quarterfinal predictions. I will be away for the rest of the season, so good luck to all

See you next season.

Cheers!

Ray Stefani

Thanx again Ray..top tipping mate..have a great break..and carn thr Wallabies

Hi Ray. Will be doing odds on this years rugby championship?

The Rugby Championship
 

Hi Fatcat and all,

I don't have any national team ratings of my own to use for The Rugby Championship. I have looked at the World Rugby (used to be IRB) ratings. For 5 Rugby World Cups and 204 matches, their higher-rated team (including their home advantage) won 86%. Pretty darn good. The system is intended to give the probability of the higher-rated team winning, after adding three rating points to the home team.

Thanks to your question, I used World Rugby ratings for New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina to calculate the probability of the home and away teams winning and then the fair odds from that probability. I am attaching the odds for the 12 matcups.

I have never looked at the accuracy of the win odds against the bookies, but if the higher rated team wins 86% of the time, that's encouraging.

According to the World Rugby ratings, New Zealand would win all 6, Australia and South Africa would each win 3 and Argentina would be shut out.

I will still be rooting for the Wallabies, ratings or not.

Ray

The Rugby Championship, Second Round
 

The World Rugby (IRB) rating system seems to provide accurate odds. I mentioned that the Rugby World rating favourite, adjusted for home advantage, won 86% or five rugby union world cups. Their favourites won both game in round one of the Rugby Champioship. The odds using my derivation of the World Rugby equations were generally a bit higher than bookmaker decimal odds, which we would expect, given that bookmaker odds are set to make a profit. Hats off to Rugby World ratings.

I am attaching the calculations again for all 12 games.

Cheers,

Ray

cheers ray

Thanks Ray for your input once again
Crusaders win their 9th title
Champs!

The Rugby Champiosnhips, Round 3
 

World Rugby has adjusted their ratings. I took the new ratings for New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and Argentina and recalculated the predictions for rounds 3-6. If ratings are adjusted again, I will then update any un-played matches. Here are all 12 predictions, arranged by round. So far, three of the four matches have gone as Rugby World ratings predicted. Argentina upset South Africa in the other match.

New Zealand looks pretty strong so far. I would say that the outlook is all black for the others, but might not be punny.

Ray Stefani

The Rugby Championship Rounds 5 and 6
 

The World Rugby federation updated their ratings after rounds 3 and 4. Round 4 created changes since South Africa upset New Zealand playing away and Argentine upset Australia playing away. I am sending the new predictions and odds for rounds 5 and 6, using the new World Rugby ratings . There were no value bets for the first 8 games.

Cheers Ray

The Rugby Championship
 

I think were learned that the official Rugby World rantings are pretty accurate at setting odds. I posted what the fair odds would be, using Rugby World's ratings. If we discounted the fair odds by 10% or so, we got almost exactly the bookmaker odds. There are two sides to that issue though. Maybe the Rugby World ratings do give good probabilities (I put the formula on the odds sheets I posted) OR maybe book makers use the same ratings to set odds that would balance the books if a lot of batters also yanked out their calculators and cranked away at the official Rugby World ratings.

Before the matches started the ratings suggested that NZ should win 6 (they won 5 after being upset by SA); SA should (and did) win 3 (with an upset win and upset loss); Australia should win 3 but won 2 after being upset by Argentina and Argentina should win none but won two in upsets. The higher rated teams won 75% of the matches, which is good prediction. NZ earned four bonuses.

It was definitely exciting.

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray. Was well worth the watch.

Hi Ray

Super Rugby 2018 was great with your awesome tips. Are we going to be getting tips for Super Rugby 2019 that starts in a couple of weeks? Hope so!! Looking forward to it

Cheers
Fatcat

Ditto Ray

Super Rugby is coming soon
 

Thanks for the kind words guys. I will definitely crank up the good old computer and we'll be off to another fun season. I am looking forward to it!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby for sure
 

Darn right. The tips will be coming your way soon!

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 1, 14-16 February
 

Hi everyone.

I am excited to see what 2019 has in store for Super Rugby. SANZAR has changed the system few times recently, but, thankfully, the system in place for 2019 is the same as for 2018.


I change various parameters in my method based on results. We had a great year in 2018, so not much changed in my model .


I begin 2019 with the team ratings from the end of 2018. In case some teams have changed from last year, be cautious for the first three or four weeks as my system adjusts ratings.


One thing I love about Super Rugby is that they beat the heck out of each other for 80 minutes, shake hands and go out for a pint afterwards as friends. If only our politicians could do that!


Here is what I think will happen in Round 1 in a couple of weeks.


Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Cheers Ray

Thanks Ray
Really looking forward to this round's clash between the Blues & Crusaders
In particular the match-ups between Sonny Bill Williams & Ma'a Nonu with Ryan Crotty & Jack Goodhue
Should be very entertaining

Awesome match up
 

That will be a great game to watch. I like Sonny Bills' style.

Ray

Super Rugby Round 2
 

What home advantage? The home teams won 1 and lost 6. Also, there were 4 upsets in 7 games. That's why I always suggest being very conservative for the first 3 or 4 weeks. The ratings have to adjust for changes since last season and also to any early season oddities like 6 home losses in 7 games.

That Crusaders-Blues game was as awesome as we thought!

Ray Stefani

And pretty dramatic with Harry Plummer missing two late shots at goal
Still,,some good value if you took the Blues with a bit of start

Super Rugby Round 3
 

I was curious to see how the Blues would perform after a great showing against the Crusaders last week, when they gained 7 rating points., making them a converted try better than last season. Still, I favoured the Sharks in Round 2 while the bookmakers took the Blues. The Sharks won 27-12, so maybe the Blues still have a ways to go. We'll see against the Jaguars whom I favour by 7 at home in Round 3.

Cheers,

Ray

The Blues were a bit disappointing Ray,,perhaps a bit flat after last weeks effort
But they didn't play that badly & I thought the final score flattered the home side

Yeah,,watching that game now Ray
Jaguars leading 11-9 half time :(

Super Rugby Round 4
 

Here are the biggest movers after three rounds, compared to last year's final ratings. The Bulls gained 11.9 rating points followed by the Reds (8.5), Blues (6.6), Rebels (6.5) and Sunwolves (6.1,) who beat the Chiefs, paying 10.00 to Sunwolves supporters brave enough to support them at Chiefs. At the other end, the Chiefs have dropped 23.9 rating points and are now bottom for ratings and bottom in the combined Super Rugby table. Dropping that many rating points must be some sort of record in futility.

Let’s see what Round 4 has in store. The improved Blues host the improved Sunwolves.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Round 5
 

I always suggest that it takes 3 or 4 weeks for the ratings to adjust. After 3 weeks, my favourites just barely had a winning record and the home teams had a losing record. Round 4 showed that ratings had adjusted. All 7 of my favourites won and all 7 home teams won. Looks like we are on our way.

Good luck with Round 5,

Ray Stefani

Blues finally on the board
Rieko Ioane (four tries) inspired the Blues to much-needed victory

Well done Ray

Super Rugby winner
Crusaders now in the red with most bookies

Super Rugby Round 6
 

My heart goes out to the families that lost loved ones in the Christchurch shootings. Cancelling the Hurricanes-Crusaders match was the right thing to do to honour the dead and allow the Christchurch-based Crusaders (and all of us) to grieve. Let’s agree to live our lives the way those that died would have lived theirs if only they could. My son told me that me that after being an army battalion surgeon in combat zones.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

"It is expected that SANZAAR will announce on Friday that the Sunwolves will be removed from Super Rugby only three years after their inclusion. As part of more revamping, Super Rugby will abolish the conference system and return to a round-robin format where everyone plays each other once."

Source:RugbyPass

SANZAR announcement-Bye Be Sunwolves
 

I wish we all could meet at a pub and have a great discussion about that press release. We could say a lot of things that ought not be printed online.

I didn’t think the Super Rugby system was broken enough (or at all) to need fixing when SANZAR added the Sunwolves and Jaguars, but I did understand the idea of tapping the Asian audience. OK, then why stop now of all times. Sure, the Sunwolves were awful at first but they are more competitive this year. More important to the Asian rugby audience, the 2019 Rugby World Cup is going to be played in Japan which ought to carry over into a large following of the Sunwolves when other Super Rugby teams visit, if they play all their home games in Japan. Then comes the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, including rugby sevens. That ought to further reinforce rugby in Japan. How about SANZAR taking some of the big TV and gate receipts that ought to happen in Japan and help visitors with travel expenses. If 2020 is a bad season for the Sunwolves on the field and at the gate, then pull the plug. I think this season is too soon, but I’d love to hear from you all.

..absolutely ray
..the cut happens from 2021
..still getting over the dumping of western force
..sunwolves kept their spot instead

SANZAAR Announcement and Jake's Comments
 

Right on Jake.

I guess we should have been clued in that a Japan Super Rugby team was temporary but Argentina would be welcomed longer when SANZAR became SANZAAR and not SANZAJAR. So, they demanded that Australia dump a team (the Western Force) to take in the Sunwolves and now that the Sunwolves will be dumped starting in 2021, they don’t suggest that Australia should get back their fifth team. The Japan Rugby Football Union apparently started it all by saying that they could not underwrite the Sunwolves after 2020, even though they ought to be swimming in rugby money after the 2019 World Cup and 2020 Olympic rugby sevens. Just where is all that rugby money going to go? I have a guess.

Starting in 2021, Super Rugby will have a round robin for 14 teams with no conferences, meaning that in year one there will 7 home games and 6 away games for some teams and 6 home games and 7 away games for the rest; followed in year two by the reverse schedule to balance home-away games every two years combined. Still, there will be a mismatched schedule each year where the luck of the draw will help some teams make the new six-team playoffs. The top two will get a bye for the first playoff week. If Australia got a fifth team, a 15-team round robin would have home-away balance every year for the 14 games.

ACT Brumbies coach Dan McKellar says he is "dumbfounded" by the decision to axe the Japan Sunwolves at a time he believes rugby in Asia is about to experience a massive boom.

The Sydney Morning Herald

The South African teams have been vocal in the past about their displeasure in travelling to Singapore & Japan to play the Sunwolves
Wonder if that has any bearing

South Africa and bye-bye Sunwolves
 

You got that right. Look at the name change from SANZAR to SANZAAR. South Africa, SA, appears first in both versions and the new name resembles SA words like Africaans and Transvaal. They do have clout and you are right that that has a lot to do with the planned demise of the Sunwolves. They do have a serious point too. I was curious about the actual miles traveled. I took one city in each country: Cape Town, Sydney, Christchurch, Tokyo and Buenos Aires. From Google I got airline distances and I added the distances from each country to the other four. South Africa teams travel 27,000 miles while Australia and New Zealand teams travel 20,000 miles. Actually, it’s worse for Japan (31,000) and Argentina (29,000). By dropping Japan, distances equalize to South Africa and Argentina (18,000 miles), Australia (15,000) and New Zealand (14,000).

Still, I agree completely with Brumbies coach Dan McKellar that rugby is about to become huge in the Asia market. SANZAAR doesn’t need to beg the Japan Rugby Football Union to please, please underwrite the Sunwolves. SANZAAR ought to be negotiating big money TV contracts with the major Asian TV networks to carry all Super Rugby games, incentivized by the Sunwolves and especially by being able to advertise Super Rugby when they carry the Rugby WC in 2019 and rugby sevens at the 2020 Olympics. SANZAAR ought to be able to earn all the money they need to help with travel and have lots left over.

I get it that having a Northern Hemisphere team in a predominantly Southern Hemisphere competition is a square peg in a round hole but the idea was to dig the round hole into gold bars.

Super Rugby Round 7
 

For round 6, I had the much-improved Blues and Reds as favourites whilst the bookies had them as underdogs. They both won and their supporters cashed nice value bets. The Sunwolves didn’t help their cause at all by losing 24-37. I thought the Sunwolves would want to show that they do belong in Super Rugby.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

Crusaders record 19 match-winning streak has been halted courtesy NSW Waratahs
Bookies unmoved, Crusaders still odds-on