EPL week 7, go to soccer next week
 

Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

Hi Ray

Any chance of getting week 9?

Cheers

EWPL week 8
 

I just posted week 8 on the soccer section last week. I'll post on rugby and soccer from now on so you won't miss any games. There were no games last week because of European World Cup Qualifying, so the week 8 games are coming up in hours.

Cheers,

Ray

How to break even when your team draws in soccer
 

I posted this in the soccer section lst week; but I want every one to know a simple betting trick so you break even when your team draws and win money when your team wins.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

EPL Week 9
 

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 10
 

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 11
 

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

Ray, how long has this little gem been hiding under Rugby Union? You should start your own thread.

Hi Ray, may be time to just post your EPL selections on the existing Soccer thread, as you are also doing now.

EPL predictions
 

As many of you already know, I have been posting my Super Rugby predictions on this thread for several years. FATCAT asked if I would resume my EPL soccer predictions which I used to post but had discontinued. That was a great idea from FATCAT , so I located my old software, updated it, and ran last EPL season to get beginning values for this season.

For your convenience, I have been posting my EPL predictions here and under ‘Soccer”. I thank Mark for liking theses posts, having just noticed them under “Rugby Union”. Now an Administrator want me to just post under Soccer. I want be cooperative and to not misuse the system, so I will post my EPL predictions under soccer from now on, as requested by the Administrator! Look for them there. Good luck to all.

Ray Stefani

2018 Super Rugby Winner

Hurricanes 5.00
Crusaders 5.00
Lions 7.00
Chiefs 9.00
Highlanders 9.50
Blues 17.00
Brumbies 21.00
Stormers 21.00
Waratahs 26.00
Sharks 26.00
Bulls 34.00
Los Jaguares 51.00
Rebels 51.00
Reds 67.00
Sunwolves 501.00

Hi Ray
Any team/s worth an early punt?
Cheers

Super Rugby 2018
 

Hi Ray

Will you be giving us your awesome predictions again this Super Rugby season?

Cheers
Fatcat

I would also like to see them again this year.

Super Rugby (sort of) Week 1
 

Hi everyone. It's great to say hi again.

The new Super Rugby season starts with 2 matches in South Africa, followed by seven more about a week later. I am posting the two South Africa matches now

We are back to 15 teams. As when we had 15 teams before, there is a double round robin in each division, making for 8 matches. Then come matches against 8 of the other 10 teams. Travel isn’t balanced. When the New Zealand teams play away in their division, all away matches are domestic. Each Australia team has to travel to Japan for one away division match and each South Africa team has to travel to Argentina for one away division match. I hate to see the Force displaced, by Sanzar didn’t ask me or anyone in Australia for a suggestion.

Good luck. Let’s bet carefully for the first four weeks or so as the teams settle into the new season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 2
 

This time we actually have a full slate of 7 matches. Last time I could only give you 2 in South Africa.

Good luck. Be cautious for the first few weeks. I start week 1 where we left off in 2017. Sometimes teams can change a bit over the break.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 3
 

I always caution about betting very cautiously for the first four weeks because I start each season where we left off at the end of the last season. Being cautious for four weeks allows for teams getting better or worse over the break. Wow, the Rebels really have improved. Last season their opponents outscored then by 333 points and the Rebels were nearly dropped from Super Rugby. Fortunately for the Rebels, the Force got dropped instead. In Week 2, the Rebels beat the Reds in 45-19. Assuming they didn’t poison the Reds’ food, the Rebels may be competitive this season. We’ll know soon enough.

Here comes Week 3. Week 1 wasn’t exactly a full week, as only 2 matches were played, but we’ll count it as a “week” anyway.

News from PyeongChang: Australia has 3 medals and the USA has 23. However, the USA has 14 times the population, so adjusting for population, actually, Australia wins 42 to 21. Way to go! Also, Great Britain has 5 medals, but only 2 were earned standing up. Australia wins 3-2 on standing-up medals.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 4
 

You should be very cautious betting for another week or two. The ratings are still adjusting to teams having changed over the break. It would be a massive understatement to say the rebels have improved. They won one game all last season and are two from two so far in 2018. After week 5, the ratings should be a pretty good judge of this year’s teams.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Thanks Ray for all your hard work.

Super Rugby Week 5
 

The Rebels keep right on amazing us. At the end of last season (when the only won once) they had the second worst score difference (-333). Now they have won three from three and have the best score difference. The message seems to be to never give up.

The ratings are still adjusting. The Rebels rating is moving up from being so low last season. Those that lost to the Rebels this season when the Rebels rating was low are also moving up.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Wow Ray ..there have def been some hard games this season..thanx again for the tips each wk mate

Nothing boring about the start
 

Thanks Johnnie,

It has been hard so far. There were a couple of big jolts. Going from 18 back to 15 changed the mix of domestic and international matches and conference line-ups. Apparently, Japan is now part of Australia. Mainly, the Rebels are much better than last year so the ratings have to adjust. I think we are pretty close to having a good line on all the teams.

Good luck guys!

Ray

Super Rugby Week 6
 

The home teams won 6 from 7, which made for some upsets. Let's see what Week 6 has in store for us.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 7
 

Week 6 turned out to be perfect. Five of six favourites won, with the Hurricanes supporters cashing a value bet. Then, the Jaguars beat my favourite Lions, but that upset cashed a big value bet paying 4.2 to Jaguars supporters. We could use a few more weeks like that. Let’s starts with Week 7!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 8
 

Hi everybody,

We are moving right along. My favourites won 5 of the 6 games (bringing us to 10 of the last 12). Two more value bets were cashed by Chiefs and Bulls supporters.

Good luck with week 8,

Ray Stefani

Nice tipping there Ray..

ray just stumbled on your thread and and will later look over all 500+pages (looked over the latest attachment and wow congrats) am I right in saying you think Waratahs will win Sunwolves. think I have that right
thanks

Waratahs-Sunwolves
 

You read my prediction correctly. I had the Waratahs as 68% likely to win. They did win by and by 31. In fact, all six of my favourites won this week

Super Rugby Week 9
 

We are moving right along. All six favourites won this week, bringing the total to 16 from 18 over the last three weeks. I think we can all live with that. Let's see what week 9 has in store for us.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 10
 

We have had 83% of our favourites win in the last 4 weeks. I like that trend.

Last week, my fair odds were surprisingly close to the bookies. Maybe they are reading our forum too. The only value bet was to take the Jaguars at 4.2 when I had 3.32. That would have cashed but also would have been a really questionable bet on an underdog.

Good luck as we reach week 10.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 11
 

Only two of may favourites lost last week; but the two were the Waratahs and the Brumbies who were both upset while playing at home. Sadly, except for the mid computer-table Waratahs, the Australian teams are generally at the bottom of my ladder. For week 11, I have all the Australian conference teams losing that are in action. I’d like to be wrong.

Good luck with Week 11
,
Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 12
 

I had to check twice that the Jaguars actually won in New Zealand. On the other hand (besides five fingers), by winning they gave their supporters a cashed value bet.

The Sunwolves were predictable bad again. I had predicted a 40-16 loss to the Hurricanes and the actual score was a bit worse, 43-15.

I will go out on a limb, and predict that the Sunwolves will not lose this week, mostly because they don't play.

Good luck with Week 12.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 13
 

Half the week 12 games resulted in upsets. One upset was OK for Sharks supporters who cashed a value bet.

We have lucky week 13 coming up!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 14
 

Week 13 did turn out to be lucky. My favourites won 6 of 7. I had the bookie underdog Sunwolves as my favourite. When they won, that cashed a nice value bet for Sunwolves supporters. Hard as it is to believe, the Sunwolves scored 1/4 of their season points in that one game, winning 63-28. See, a positive attitude worked (along with lots of luck).

Good luck with Week 14.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 15
 

Week 14 was our kind of week. My favourites won 5 of the 7 games. Even better is that my underdog Sunwolves and Waratahs both won, which cashed value bets for supporters. That's two weeks in a row that the underdog Sunwolves won and cashed value bets for supporters.

Let's have a good week 15 too!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 16
 

The next games after week 16 are not be until the end of June. I will be traveling, so my predictions for Week 17 will be late in that week.

I estimate that we have had 20% profit on turnover starting with week 4. Let's keep it up!

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Thanx again for the tips Ray..you always go well with the rugby..enjoy your trip away

Hope you are enjoying your Holiday Ray..

Super Rugby Week 18
 

Thanks for the kind words.

I am back and here are my predictions for Week 18.

Good luck to all,

Ray

Super Rugby Week 19
 

It was nice to be back with Super Rugby Week 18. All 7 of my favourites won, including the Reds who were the bookies underdog. That made for a nice value bet for Reds supporters.

Here we go with week 19, which ends the regular season, leading into the playoffs.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani