Super Rugby Week 5
 

Thanks to many of you for the kind words.

So far so good. My favourites have cooperated and won as expected in 79% of the matches so far, including five upset wins. The really huge rating swings due to those huge early season score differences have settled. The probabilities that I use to set odds have been pretty close so far. Let’s have a great rest-of-the season.

Good luck with week 5.

Ray Stefani

Absolutely :)
Cheers Ray

Super Rugby Week 6
 

Seven of my eight favourites won this week, bringing the season success rate to 81%. Of course, the only upset among my favourites was a lost value bet, blamed on the Brumbies. The Sharks did come through to cash a value bet for supporters, so we were basically even for Week 6. The predicted score margins were surprisingly accurate: just off by 5 points per game.

It looks like we will have a lot of one-sided games coming up in Week 6 (or some big upsets).

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 7
 

My favourites have been very cooperative. Fo rall 6 weeks, they have won 84% of the matches. For the last three weeks, they have won 93% of their matches. On the other hand, the bookie odds have been very close to mine so there have been few value bets. I have been focusing on money line bets.

You might look into points start bets. Suppose the Hurricanes are offered at -6.5 while I have them to win by 10. You could book Hurricanes -6.5 and have an edge of 3.5 points. Suppose the Reds are offered in a different game at +10.5 while I have their opponent to win by 6. You could book the Reds + 10.5 and have an edge of 4.5 points. I suggest looking for an edge of 3.5 points or more. The payoff is around 1.85 so if you pick in the right direction at least 60% of the time, you win at least .6*1.85 = 1.11, at least an 11% profit.

Good luck with week 7.

Ray Stefani

Again awesome tipping mate..have also been doing margin or tribet selections with your tips...going well

Cheers Ray

..super rugby competition to be cut from 18 to 15 teams for 2018
..two south african teams will go & one from australia

Super ugby Week 8
 

Five of my seven favourites won last week making 82% for the season. There was a head-to-head value-bet winner thanks to the Sunwolves last week.

My fair odds are getting so close to the bookies for head-to-head bets that I am looking around the room for a hidden camera. Last week I looked at points difference start value bets with at least a 2.5 point advantage giving or taking points. Three of four value bets cashed.

Thanks johnniebum for the kind words.

Jake mentions changes for 2018. There is less balance this year, so some teams obviously should go. I hate to see Australia losing one, so the South Africa conglomerate gets six.

Good luck with week 8!

Ray Stefani

Looking to 2018
 

Ok, so there will be three conferences of 5 each in 2018. The “Australian Conference” will have four actual Australian teams plus the Sunwolves.

Think about travel. When each of the five New Zealand Conference teams plays its 4 away conference games, the games are all in NZ. When the four Australian teams play their four “conference” away games, one will be in Japan. Of course, the Sunwolves will have terminal jet lag, as now, so no wonder they are worst, but they are not going to be dropped. Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

I know it comes down to business, but there is something to be said to tradition too.

How about SANZAJAR?
 

There is no “A” for Argentina or “J” for Japan in SANZAR. How about calling it SANZAJAR, which doubles for SANity iZ all AJAR. Works for me.

Ray Stefani

..both based in staunch afl states

Super Rugby Week 9
 

For week 8, I couldn’t find any head-to-head value bets again. The payoffs for the favourites have been are too small to bother with and the underdogs weren’t likely enough to win to risk money on them. I did find 11 starting-points-difference bets that looked good starting with week 5. 7 of the 11 cashed. The new alignment continues to produce a lot of one-sided games. My favourites have won 79% of the games so far. That’s my highest ever through week 8.

It was interesting that the talk last week was about SANZAR moving the Sunwolves to the Australian Conference next year as part of going back to 15 teams. I missed the part where Japan became the 8th state. So, either the Western Force or the Rebels are to go. The Rebels responded by upsetting the Brumbies. The pathetic Sunwolves responded by losing 50-3. New Zealand bookmakers have cut off taking bets on the Highlanders to beat the Sunwolves.

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

Thanks for this great work Ray. Been going well on the betting front using this information.

As a matter of interest, do you do something similar for the UK premiership soccer league (EPL)?

Super Rugby Week 10
 

Those point difference bets continue to be a good idea. Three of five point-start-difference value bets cashed last week, bringing the total to 11 of 17 since week 5, a 21% profit on turnover. My favorite team won 6 and tied 1 out of 8 matches, bringing season accuracy to 80%, a new high for this date.

The next matches are in two weeks.

Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.

Good luck when week 10 rolls around.

Ray Stefani

I'd really appreciate you doing this Ray for next season. Would like to give it a crack

Cheers

Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?

Super Rugby Week 11
 

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 11 with predictions
 

I forgot to upload the predictions in my last send.

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Correction for Fatcat
 

Oops, I made an error in writing that there was a two-week gap.

I use the symbol R to mean the decimal odds. Rb means the bookie's decimal odds, like for SportsBet. Rf means my fair odds.

To Fatcat
 

I can check your Excel spread sheet. Just email me at Raystefani@aol.com and attach it with an explanation.

Super Rugby Week 12
 

Last weekend all 8 of my favourites won. I have only had one season of 16 when my favourites won more than 70% of their matches. So far, they have won 81%.

Last week, only one match of the 8 had a predicted point difference under 11. Next week, 5 of the 7 matches have a predicted point difference under 11. Next week ought to be the most interesting so far.

Good luck with week 11,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 13
 

Week 12 was the first week in a while with some competition. I counted three upsets instead of many one-sided wins.

I’d like to tell you how skillful it was that I picked the Reds to beat the Rebels 29-24 and they did win 29-24; but, I can’t keep a straight face. Getting close is skill. Nailing it right on does require luck.

There were some successful score difference bets in week 12.

Good luck with (lucky) week 13. I’m not superstitious, because that would be bad luck.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 13
 

Thanks Ray great work with your Super rugby Picks.

Super Rugby week 14
 

Thanks to Bellamon for the encouragement.

Week 13 did turn out to be lucky. Some seasons go by without a single week with all the winners being picked perfectly. Last week was the third perfect week this season. We now have an 81% record for the season.

What is sad for fans that pay good money to attend a game is that teams seem to get behind and give up. The winner scored over 50 points in four games last week. The average for both teams in a game is usually about 54 points.

Good luck on week 14.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 15
 

I thought week 14 was more competitive than we have seen lately. We picked the Western Force to win in an upset compared to bookie odds and they did. The Brumbies were my underdog but had good bookie odds, supporting a bet on them which paid off. Still, we have teams getting behind and giving up like the Sunwolves and the Southern Kings.

There will only be 15 games from now until 8 July, followed by the last nine games to end the regular season.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 16
 

Hi to all,

The next games aren’t until 30 June and 1 July. After that I will be away, so this will be my last send. I hope you enjoyed getting these picks as much as I enjoyed saying hi each week.

I look forward to Super Rugby going back to 15 teams next season. I think it’s much more fun when there are three five-team conferences and each team plays their other four conference teams twice each (8 games) and then plays 8 of the other 10 teams, once each. That means the average team goes from just playing 74% of the other teams in this season’s system to playing 86% next year (12 of 14).

Good luck. See you next season!

Ray Stefani

Good work as always Ray
Much appreciated

Ditto Ray

Thanx Ray for all your insight and great tipping for this season

you would have my interest, ray

I'd definitely be in Ray

Hi Ray

Will you be using this channel for your EPL predictions or another one. If so can you send me a link to it please

Thanks

ditto Ray

The Australian Rugby Union have decided to discontinue the Western Force's licence

I will use this channel for sure. I was gone for over a month and am catching up with a lot of oblations. I have to relocate my soccer computer software and run at least one past year of EPL matches to update my parameters. Then I can make the predictions you all deserve for the current season. It may take me a couple of months to get up to speed.

Until then, a hearty cheers!

Ray Stefani

good one Ray

Thanks heaps Ray

English Premier League Predictions for week 4
 

Hi to all,

As I promised, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I include a page to explain my soccer predictions. I’ll also post this in the soccer section. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

EPL week 5
 

Hi guys. I thought I would post my EPL predictions here again.

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled. An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani

EPL Week 6
 

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani