Six Nations
Winner
Taking England @$3.00 & Wales @$4.50

Super Rugby Week 1
 

As we start this new season in Super Rugby (now 18 teams), we have more than the usual unknowns to deal with. When we had Super 15, it was easy to use the rating for the SA team that was relegated for the newly promoted one. This time, the Southern Kings rejoin Super Rugby but no SA team was dropped. I gave the Southern Kings the rating for last year’s worst team from SA.

This time, we have two new teams to deal with. Since Argentina is usually competitive in the Rugby World Cup, I gave the Jaguars of Argentina the rating of the middle team from last year. Since Japan had trouble putting a team together, I gave the Sunwolves the rating of last year’s worst team. The Sunwolves open at home. We’ll see how they do. (What is a sunwolf anyway?)

It will take about four weeks for the ratings to be adjusted due to last year’s team’s changing ability and the new teams seeking the right level. Be very careful with your bets until we know who is who this season.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Welcome back Ray :)

Super Rugby Week 2
 

Thanks for the welcome back!

In week 1, the problem teams were the new teams, the Jaguars, Sunwolves and S. Kings. The Jaguars did as expected when I put them at the rating of the middle team. The other two did worse than expected as to score difference. I had put the S. Kings at the level of the worst SA team, while the Sunwolves were assumed to be the worst of all. The Sunwolves and S. Kings adjusted downward while their opponents adjusted upward. In week 1, 67% of the predicted winners did win.

Ratings adjust a lot at the start of the season. We’ll probably figure out what a sunwolf looks like too. By week 4, the ratings should have settled out. Please bet very cautiously until then.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 3
 

My system made some large adjustments to the ratings of some of the new teams and to a few of the old teams during the first two weeks. The probabilities seem to be pretty accurate now. Of course there is always the unexpected, like the Lions beating the Chiefs for the first time in NZ. The Lions play their third consecutive away game against the Highlanders.

Be cautious when betting during the first four weeks.

Good luck with week 3.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 4
 

My probabilities seem to be right on. We were supposed to get 63% of the winners right so far and we did get 63% right. The ratings have settled down. I suggest being cautious for week four as always, just to be safe. I think we are otherwise good to go for 2016.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 5
 

There were a lot of upsets last week. The good news is that the upsets fine tuned this year’s ratings, especially for the new teams. The Sunwolves seem to be rather erratic. The match last week with the Rebels was at home for the Sunwolves, yet they lost by 26 points. The week before that, they played as expected at home.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray

Super Rugby Week 6
 

After week 4, I mentioned that the ratings seemed to have stabilized. That looks about right since Week 5 went well. My predicted favourites won 7 from 8 (88%), including a win by my favourite Stormers, who were the Bookie’s underdogs, cashing a value bet for Stormers supporters.

The two bottom teams in the computer ratings play this week: the S. Kings are home to the Sunwolves. That may seem kind of boring. No worries. The top two computer teams play too: The Brumbies are home to the Chiefs. All 7 home teams are favoured.

Good luck with Week 6.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 7
 

The predictions have been remarkably accurate so far as to the probabilities, score differences and score totals. There were only small differences from the bookmaker offering so far. Last week, the Southern Kings and Rebels rewarded supporters who cashed small value bets for a small overall profit (which is still better than the alternative).

Good luck with week 7.

Ray Stefani

So Im guessing youve tipped the sharks canes reds and kings

Tipping for Week 7
 

No, I tipped the Force, Jaguars, Reds and Lions, but not by much. The other games did not offer an advantage.

Super Rugby Week 8
 

In a way, we had a perfect week. Five of my seven favorites won. Although my underdogs, the Reds and the Lions won the other two matches, their supporters cashed value bets. So far, my odd have been remarkably close to the bookmakers, so bets have been relatively small.

Good luck with week 8.

Ray Stefani

More on tipping
 

Basically, to test a bet, you multiply my probability by the bookmaker's decimal odds for a moneyline bet. If the product is more than one, that would be a candidate bet. The amount to bet depends on how much much more than one and on the decimal odds. Sometimes it's best to tip a favorite, and other times the underdog. You will find betting methods just after my predictions each week.

Ray

Appreciate your ongoing input Ray. Any early thoughts - Conference winners, Finalists, winning Conference / Team? Thanks.

Playoff teams
 

Good question.

I think the Chiefs, Brumbies, Crusaders and Highlanders will be in with the finals Hurricanes, Blues and Rebels fighting it out for the fifth spot.

I think the Stormers and Lions will be in the finals with the Sharks and Bulls fighting it out for the third spot. The schedule for the last two or three weeks will make the difference.

Cheers,

Ray

Super Rugby Week 9
 

All seven of my favourites won last week. There are two games this week that are almost exactly even. The W. Force are favoured by 0.01 points. I’d call that pretty even.

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

Got all the match winner correct this week although missed two margins
Would never have tipped the cheetahs to score 90 odd points and missd the reds game..had the bulls 1 to 12

Super Rugby, week 10
 

I’m a bit late this week. I was away for a few days.

Week 9 was rather strange. After all seven of my favourites had won during week 8, only four of eight won during week 9. The Sunwolves won convincingly, their only win so far. The Western Force continue to underwhelm. The Sharks won as my underdog; but that was OK, because Sharks supporters cashed a value bet.

Good luck with week 10,

Ray Stefani

thanks for that ray
your feedback, if anything changes, would also be appreciated

Super Rugby Week 11
 

Last week, five of my seven favourites won. Let’s keep up that success.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

Updated playoff picks
 

With more games played, here’s how I update my view of the eventual playoffs.

From the Australasian group, the Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders are very likely to make the playoffs. There will probably be just one Australian team. It’s close between the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs.

In South Africa, the Stormers, Lions and Bulls are very likely to be the playoff teams. The Sharks have an outside chance to displace the Lions.

Ray

Super Rugby Week 12
 

In week 11, five of my seven favourites own. That included my favourite Sharks who were the bookmakers’ underdog, so Sharks followers cashed a value bet.

Good luck with week 12.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 13
 

Week 12 went well. There was one game that I rated even. Of the other seven, my favourite won six and tied one. My favourite Highlanders were the bookie's underdog, so Highlanders supporters cashed a value bet.

Good luck with lucky week 13.

Ray Stefani

cheers ray :)

Super Rugby Week 14
 

My favourites won 6 of 7 last week and 70% for the season. That’s pretty high accuracy. I’ve only had 70% or more right in 2 of 15 seasons. For professional sports, getting 2/3 (67%) right is good prediction.

Good luck with week 14

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Thanx Ray for your tipping info..sure has been a big help

Super Rugby Week 15
 

For week 14, 7 of my 8 favourites won, including the Waratahs who were the bookie underdogs. The Waratahs rewarded followers with a value bet cashed. That brings my accuracy for the last 3 weeks for my favourites winning to 20 from 23.

Early in the season, I suggested that the Stormers, Lions and Bulls were likely to make the playoffs, whilst the Sharks had a chance to pass the Bulls (they had consistently higher computer ratings). In fact the Sharks have passed the Bulls. I wrote that The Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders should advance along with just one Aussie team among the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs. The Brumbies and Waratahs are fighting it out.

Week 15 isn’t until July. I’ll be away during July so this might be my last set of predictions for the year. If that is so, all the best to everyone!

Ray Stefani

Well done Ray
Thanks buddy

Super Rugby Semifinals
 

Hi Everyone,

I'm sorry that my travelling was such that I couldn't send out the last three weeks of predictions. I last sent Round 15 where all 9 of my favourites won.

The top 4 of my computer-rated teams are the 4 semifinalists. The Hurricanes and Chiefs are paired and have nearly the same ratings. The Lions and Highlanders are paired and also have about the same ratings. The predictions come down to home advantage which is a bit higher for international matches than for domestic matches, which is why the Hurricanes are favoured by 3 in an all NZ match whilst the Lions are favoured by 5 in a SA-NZ match up.

Good luck with the two semis. These should be two great matches.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Final
 

We are down to the last Super Rugby match of the new alignment. Last week, both of my favourites won. Altogether, 72% of my favourites won this season. Predicted score differences and predicted score totals have been the most accurate ever. Last week, Lions supporters cashed a value bet.

The final fixture seems fair. The top Australasian team from the final table will meet the top South African team from that final table. That’s what SANZAR wanted.

Good luck with the final and with whatever else you do until next season.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Well done Ray, as I've said before, appreciate your ongoing input.

Thanks
 

Thanks jimmyz for the kind words. See you next season!

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 1
 

Hi everyone,

It’s time to get started with a new Super Rugby season. Last season was my 17th season of Super Rugby. I picked the head-to-head winner in 72% of the matches. Only two past seasons were better. There was at least one surprise. Now that there are 18 teams with a new 15 match season, the domestic home advantage (among same-country teams) almost disappeared last season. I think the explanation is that when a team comes home after an extended trip to another country, they are rewarded with a home match, which is sometimes against a team from the same nation that had been in-country the preceding week. That means the home team may be the one with travel fatigue. Over a season, that scheduling quirk has affected the domestic home matches. I changed my various parameters based on what I learned from the new Super 18 format.

Be fairly conservative while betting for the first three or four weeks. I start where we left off last season. Some teams may have changed. Also, there are new international matchups compared to last season. The ratings will soon sort themselves out.

Good luck with Week 1!

Ray Stefani

Nice tips Ray. ..will deff follow your guide a little closer this season..was a great help last yr

Good to see you're back Ray ;)

Good to see you back, Ray!
 

Good tips again, Ray. I'm looking forward to things settling down after Week 4.

Super Rugby Week 2
 

We had a good first week for head-to-head matches because 8 of my 9 favourites won. The only loser was when the Sharks could not hold their lead and lost by 2.

Week 2 has two of the most unique predictions ever. I have an equation to keep the rating adjustment from getting too big when something odd happens. Still, the perfect storm happened because the greatest adjustment happens in week 1 compounded by the Hurricanes having the maximum possible rating increase after winning 82-17 while the Rebels had the maximum possible rating drop when they lost 18-56. In week 2 they play each other. I have never seen a 55 point predicted score difference before. It’s a statistical quirk, which is why I advise being careful when betting for the first 4 weeks.

At the other extreme, the Blues are only hundredths of a point better than the Chiefs so the game is as even as it could be. There is nothing boring about Super rugby.

God luck with crazy week 2.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby week 3
 

I thought I was being outrageous last week when I predicted that the Hurricanes would beat the Rebels 61-6, by 55 points. That turned out to have been a pretty good call because the Hurricanes won 71-6.

So far, my favourites have won 78% of the matches. I called three upsets so far.

We’ve seen team scores of 56, 71 and 83 points so far. Will that continue? We’ll see!

Good luck with week 3.

Ray Stefani

Super Rugby Week 4
 

My higher rated teams have won 77% of the matches so far. There have been some huge rating differences with huge predicted score differences that are settling out nicely. As I always caution, bet carefully through week 4 (this weekend). Ratings should have settled out by the end of this weekend.

Cheers,

Ray

Thanx for your thoughts on the first 3 rounds ..Have been very insightful