S15
Crusaders up against Chiefs
Taking Chiefs +5.5 pyol

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Dragons
Taking Edinburgh

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Dragons
Taking Dragons +10.5 pyol

Canada Women's Sevens
Taking NZ

Handicap bets??
 

(brought forward) inquiry from new member for you Ray

Queensland Premier Rugby


Norths v Sunnybank

S15
Highlanders up against Blues
Taking Highlanders

S15
Highlanders up against Blues
Taking Blues +12.5 handicap

Super 15 Week 11
 

Somehow, Week 10 seemed a bit odd to me. Maybe that was because of six home losses in seven matches, including four favourites who had probabilities of 75%, 72%, 69% and 62% to win. Let’s see what oddities will emerge in Week 11.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Cheers Ray

Week 10
 

Indeed, Ray - my tipping was woeful!

S15
Chiefs up against Western Force
Taking Chiefs

S15
Brumbies up against Highlanders
Taking Highlanders +12.5 handicap

Aviva Premiership
Bath up against London Irish
Taking Bath 13+ margin

S15
Waratahs up against Rebels
Taking Waratahs

Hi Ray
(brought forward) inquiry from new member for you
in case you didn't notice

Super 15 week 12 and handicap bets
 

In Super 15, we have had to expect the unexpected. For two weeks, 77% of my favourites won. Then for two weeks, only 38% won. In week 11, 100% of my favorites won. I’d rather expect the expected, so we’ll see what happens in week 12.

Stormers supporters cashed the only value bet from week 11.

The was a question about handicap bets. I'm sorry that I didn't notice the question. I provide a predicted margin of victory for each favourite (which can be used versus the bookmaker's ranges). You can take or give points, compared to the bookmaker's ranges and see if there is enough difference to bet. You can create a table that calculates the probablity of winning versus the bookie and use Kelly to decide how much to bet. If you are familiar with Excel and how to use a normal distribution, use a standard deviation of 13.7 points. You take the difference between my prediction and the bookie value, divide by 13.7 and get the probability. It's a little more tricky than a win/lose bet but I see that members do tip handicaps.

Good luck with week 12.

Ray Stefani

Racing Metro 18:14

S15
Highlanders up against Sharks
Taking Highlanders

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Gloucester
Taking Gloucester

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Gloucester
Taking Edinburgh +12.5 handicap

European Challenge Cup
Edinburgh up against Gloucester
Taking Total Points over 41.5

S15
Blues up against Western Force
Taking Blues

Super 15 week 13
 

Week 12 was a success as was week 11. In week 12, five of my seven favourites won. More important is that my favourite Rebels were bookie underdogs so they rewarded supporters with a 2.90 decimal odds payout.

Good luck with LUCKY week 13.

S15
Crusaders up against Reds
Taking Crusaders

S15
Rebels up against Blues
Taking Blues +4.5 line

S15
Rebels up against Blues
Taking Blues +12.5 handicap

Junior World Championships
Taking NZ

h2h / pyol
 

Super Rugby


Rebels v Blues

Rebels v Blues +9.5

RFU Championship
Worcester up against London Scottish
Taking Worcester 13+ margin

French Top 14


Toulon v Castres

Guinness Pro 12
Scarlets up against Cardiff Blues
Taking Scarlets

Super 15 week 14
 

A few weeks back, I mentioned that the home teams had a losing record which was very odd. Averages have a way of working themselves out. The home teams have won 18 of the last 20 matches.

Week 13 did turn out to be lucky. Supporters of the Western Force cashed the only value bet of the week but it was a good one. The decimal odds for the Force were 3.10. Profit on turnover for the season is now a hefty 35%. After terrible week 10, bets have done very well with four of five cashing.

Good luck with week 14.

Ray Stefani

Leinster 14:13

Wasps 44:17

Clermont Auvergne 26:19

S15
Blues up against Bulls
Taking Blues +12.5 handicap

S15
Reds up against Rebels
Taking Rebels

Aviva Premiership
Bath up against Gloucester
Taking Bath

Aviva Premiership
Exeter Chiefs up against Sale Sharks
Taking Exeter