What is "late mail "
 

thanks

tips put in by an 'expert' just before a race

It depends. If you're watching Sky channel, I guess that's the case, but on the radio they give out the official 'late mail' for all races 30 minutes before the first race.

You will findthe Late Mail on NSW TAB is different to the QLD TAB to theVic TAB.
They have their own different ways of doing it.

thank you guys,

I bet on the internet, where can i get this late mail on the net?

I don't watch races on tv
I bet on the internet

www.tabracing.com.au

Go here:

http://www.tabonline.com.au/

Click on RACING, then click on the race you want. The Late mail is at the top of each race along with some of their tips.

thank U Sportz
I have learnt a lot here


when is a good time to place a bet once you decided to do it?
I can place a bet through net by click a mouse, but what I mean is , better to wait to the last moment just in case the late mail says something new? or watch the odds update till the end then accordingly put the bet on? or put it early to get a better price ?

Is late mail very useful ? is it an indication of something?

if you put it in early it doesn't necassarily mean you get a better price, that is only if you get it fixed (odds stay the same). If you are going to bet, then you should have your mind fairly set on what you are going to do for whatever reason, and the late mail shouldn't really sway your decision (unless thats what you are completely dependant on!)

I`m not sure if Mr.Regular is pulling our leg or not .

In the latest ************** Newsletter, they say that they've analysed the Late Mail selections for the last 12 months. They found a consistent strike rate of 25% at country, provincial and metro meetings and a steady loss of 9%.

Why would you say that Bhagwan :)

what is late mail
 

im with bhagwan surprised your legs arnt sore...any1 who can open an internet betting account surely must know the basics regular you r a card??

"Late mail" is a pain in the rectum, especially if it is a tax cheque....

Mug money in the main.

You must be bored finding a post this old.

Absolutely Shaun.
Remember the good old days when we all had sensible and informative things to say.

God I miss those days.

Yeah when we all used to share our selection ideas.

So true.

The market is a bit more mature - sophisticated since back then eh, chaps?

Speed of dissemination of shared information, number of players - products - channels - size / number of pools we find ourselves treading water in etc etc. The battle to get a decent price = war on value is a hardened battled between the many foot soldiers and a small band of corporate mercenaries creating business-run 'killing machines' to take the rest of us out. The rest being the clever few in the know and/or nimble of foot?

My thoughts are to go 'back to basics' as Maggie's ex-treasurer - PM to be; 'laughing boy' Johny Major once said. Look where few still bother to look, make it based on common sense and hard evidence, strike when the iron is hot = the price is right and don't share your spoils or the toils to bag them, anywhere.. except with your closest pals.

That is the new battlefield for survival that we find ourselves in.

Lock n load, gentlemen.

Cheers LG

Simple and still as easy to make a quid as it was 40 years ago.

Mind you it was a learning curve all the way through and still is.

There are consistent Form factors that just leap at you from every paper after so many years.

Its the intellectual stimulation I particularly like.

The biggest mistake I learnt was thinking a Random Pattern of Racing over any period would reproduce itself in the future..
It cant and doesn,t.

Even back in the 60,s the successful Punters were telling us this very thing yet now the smarties are telling us the opposite..

I know which one I will go with.

Every race is totally different from the one before yet we think the same conditions apply.??????????

So how do you make a quid out of it, Darkydog?

The "Random Pattern of Racing" still seems to throw up the same statistics over and over again for the favourites. While in the short term the favs stats fluctuate wildly, they still somehow revert back to the norm in the medium to long term.

Hi Clive,

I normally bet selected favs to Gross 4 % of my bank each bet betting to prices.But I will bypass race unless I get a Minimum $3.00

i.e $20000 bank X 4 % = Gross $800.

The only time I would even consider restructuring the bank size bet is when the bank increases by 50 %.
i.e $30000 X 4% Gross.

This works particularly well for me both bet size and Psychologically.

Cheers
darky

I think it so much easier to make a quid now than it was in the old days. Best tote, top fluc, betting exchange were not available then. Gifts from bookies to bet with them were unheard off. Bookies odds available in your own home - no way.
Seriously, if you can't make a go of it now you would have been chewed up and spat out in the "good old days".

Depends on how you view a race.

All races contain a number of horses who have a chance of winning. In I use that definition of a race then every race is the same :)

Agreed. The problem is people are generally lazier now though. To get the info 30 years ago meant collecting it yourself. Now its all presented to them.

This means the competition is more sophisticated yet still lazy. If you can go the extra step its not impossible for a monkey to profit on the punt.

I can do it and if my wife is to be believed a monkey is actually smarter then me (Its taken years and I still can't learn to put my clothes in the basket).

Evening UB.

That 5% POT target you mentioned (or thereabouts) really surprised me. I thought that with all your knowledge, systems, market sophistication, tools, bet/lay angles etc that you might be looking at a return somewhat bigger than that.

Shows you how much I know!

Cheers LG

well it comes down to what you want? I want more selections, higher turnover.

This results in consistency. For example if I have 10 bets a day and have a 50% strike rate there is going to be days of 5 winners, 3 winners, 7 winners, etc. Which results in huge swings on a daily basis. This could range from 0% - 100%.

But if I have 1000 selections in a day then I am more then likely going to get results in the range of 450-550 (45% - 55%) and this is what I am looking for. I will get days every so often of 350 - 400 and I will lose. Losing is part of gambling. But more selections in a day usually mean more consistency in daily returns.

To get more selections you have to give up POT. But a profit of 5% on 100 selections is the same as 1% on 500 selections. But I have far more confidence in the 500 selections then the 100 selections.

The minute you think you've got it figured, You're wrong?? he hee
Fuzzy logic at work

to follow on-
Generally speaking if you look at long term results of even money chances, intuitively one thinks that they get closer and closer to "equipartition" as the number of events increase. Although it seems correct, it is wrong.

As the number of events increases, deviation from equipartition increases, while the deviation as a percentage of the number of trials decreases.

This "decreasing percentage" becomes very important in your quest for consistent $$$$'s profits

We have missed your wisdom, woof43.

LG

woof,

Can you elaborate a bit more. I get the idea of equipartition but I don't understand your statement that the deviation from equiparition increases ?

I assume your saying as the more races we bet on the more different types of results we are going to get therefore increasing the distribution of prices around the average return. At the same time because of the distribution above and below this average return the actual deviation away from the average is going to get smaller and smaller as one result has less impact on the average return ?

Did I get this right or am I completely wrong.

LG

5 % on Turnover is a massive amount since your turning over the bank X amount of times.

If your making that most years then your beating the majority of Australian punters.

This idea of 20 - 30 % POT was brought in by the con merchants flogging useless systems and the mugs thought it was a standard.

Be happy, very happy if your making 5 %.

Bit hypocritical there dd, as you've brought many old systems on here with outlandish claims. At least be consistent.

If you havent anything sensible to say Shifty wouldnt it be better to say nothing.

shifty does have a valid point darky

Have a look at Chap 7 p41 et seq of Aczel's book "Chance" or Feller's book "An Introduction to Probability Theory and it's Applications". "Chance" is simpler to understand the other is a 'classic'. They examine the random walk results of 10,000 tosses of a fair coin.