31/10/2003 edition

Lonhro Defeated In Cox Plate

Here is some of what we said to our premium betting package members about the Cox Plate:

"...We have adjusted the ratings and repriced Lonhro so it cannot be a bet. We've done well with Lonhro but don't want to stretch our luck at odds on this time. There are some niggling doubts, though at the same time it wouldn't surprise us if Lonhro won by the length of the straight.

Lonhro's worst run of its career was in last year's Cox Plate - its only run at Moonee Valley. The track is now very much a specialists' track - see our comments about the track at www.propun.com.au/horseracing_track_mooneevalley.html

One poor run at a track doesn't prove anything, but when the price on offer about the horse at its next start at that track is around $1.50 that is another matter.

From reports Paraca could also be a wild card in the race - leading at a hectic pace and splitting up the field. So could Shower Of Roses. When that happens upset results also occur more often than at the normal random level that is racing..."

We went on to suggest a small bet on Fields Of Omagh which won at top bookmaker fluctuation $19.00 and best tote odds of $15.40 on the New South Wales tote. By the way, what were SuperTab punters doing taking $9.70 about Fields Of Omagh? You can't possibly make a long term profit getting such unders.

In the field of eight the trifecta dividends also showed how difficult it can be to obtain any value if an odds on chance places. Lonhro ran third. The best trifecta was $186.90 on the New South Wales tote. SuperTab paid just $117.70.

Keeping in mind the New South Wales tote win odds of $15.40 for Fields Of Omagh, if punters took Fields Of Omagh as a standout to win in a trifecta on that tote, then if they outlaid just $13.00 on that trifecta they would be getting effective odds of only $14.38. (Divide the trifecta dividend of $186.90 by $13.00.) That is worse than the tote win odds of $15.40.

If they took Fields Of Omagh as as a standout to win with the other seven runners for second and third the outlay would have been $42.00 for a return of $186.90. That is effective odds of a paltry $4.45 compared to $15.40 by backing Fields Of Omagh outright to win. That's also not taking into account bookmaker TF odds of $19.00 and freely available starting price odds of $17.00.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Lonhro - Cox Plate betting, trifecta tips
Re-educating the punter - getting the "ststistical edge"
How important is the barrier draw?
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/10/2003
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