31/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Make Mine Magic ready to cast a spell

The classy Brisbane five year old grey gelding, Make Mine Magic, finished a close fourth, beaten under half a length, as favourite in the $1,000,022 Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap on June 9. He was then sent for a spell.

Last Saturday he returned. He had to lug 60kg in a 1200 metres Open at Doomben. Despite being trapped wide throughout from only barrier six, jockey Glen Colless briefly hit the lead with him at the 100. He finished a very close third and looks to have some big races in him this time in. Watch out when he comes to Melbourne.

The smart Brisbane four year old grey gelding, Ceffyl, returned from a break of two months and was sent out the short $2.50 favourite in the same race, probably on the strength of only carrying 49kg. after apprentice Kenji Yoshida's three kilos claim.

Ceffyl didn't have the best of luck in the race, being checked off heels shortly after the start and being crowded near the finish. He appeared under pressure early in the straight but was beaten by less than two lengths. All things considered it wasn't too bad a run. Except of course for punters who took the poor odds of $2.50 about Ceffyl winning first up.

Kennett no go

Another disappointing favourite was the Bill Mitchell trained Kennett who resumed at Rosehill in a 1200 metres restricted race after a spell of over four months.

Kennett had barrier 10 in the 11 horse field. He also had to carry 55kg. Not surprisingly jockey Glen Boss settled him midfield, but wide throughout. Early in the straight Kennett loomed up and looked as if he was going to mount a serious challenge, but the hard ride combined with lack of race fitness told. He finished fourth, beaten by nearly five lengths. Starting at $3.20 he was never value. He did not have a 31% chance of winning.

In the same race non-winner Veteran, trained by John Hawkes, who had barrier eight, started at only $5.50. He comfortably led, got headed in the straight and uncharacteristically folded without a yelp. He now has only one win and eight seconds from 18 starts.

The winner of the race was another non-winner, Fouardee, who before the race had only one win and five seconds from 19 starts. Unlike many non-winners, Fouardee has had an enormous amount of bad luck in his races. With normal luck he would have won many more races.

Fouardee was solidly supported on track from $6.00 to $4.60. Top jockey Jim Cassidy had been put on. He rode the horse a treat, settled outside the leader Veteran, hit the lead early in the straight and won by nearly four lengths. A pity some of Fouardee's other jockeys didn't ride the horse the same way.

Worst bet of the day?

Top horses, champion horses, can be terrible bets if they are no value. Northerly, who will shortly be a major contender in some of the biggest races in the Melbourne Spring Carnival, was a terrible bet at Belmont, West Australia.

Northerly was second up in a Listed race over 1400 metres. He had risen in weight by one kilo, after his first up win two weeks earlier, to a wopping 62kg. Corporate Bruce, who Northerly beat by two lengths, dropped one kilo to 56kg.

Now six year old gelding Corporate Bruce is no slouch, having won eight of his 23 races and amassed over $200,000 in prizemoney. He met Northerly nominally two kilos better at the weights. However allow at least three or four kilos for Northerly's extra kilo to 62kg. Just think of any athlete who can perform at one level but fails at the next step up - high jumper, weight lifter and so on.

Northerly was sent out the $1.40 favourite. He finished second to Corporate Bruce. If punters got a 70% winning strike rate at $1.40 they would still be losing money!! And that about a horse second up carrying 62kg., meeting another horse who he only beat by two lengths, two kilos worse at the weights.

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Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow

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