31/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Where's the value?

Sir Clive resumed from a spell last Saturday at Sandown in the Group 2 Weight for Age J.J. Liston Stakes run over 1400 metres. He was solidly supported on track from $5.00 to $4.20 in the 16 horse field. At $4.20 that meant he was given nearly a 25% chance of winning the race while the other 15 runners between them were only given a 75% chance.

When you consider that nine of the 16 horses were first up, taking shortish odds about Sir Clive, one of the first up runners, was asking for trouble. Sir Clive had every chance but flopped badly and finished a well beaten twelfth.

Le Zagaletta, one of Victorian trainer Lee Freedman's horses, who had no luck at his first up run 13 days earlier, won the race in a very tight finish from Inaflury who flew home first up. At least $7.00 was available in the bookmakers' betting ring about Le Zagaletta, unless of course you were a Victorian tote punter. The poor Victorian tote punters had to make do with a paltry $5.40, hardly value. Le Zagaletta paid $6.40 on the Queensland tote.

Stayer Native Jazz finished the race off nicely and was only beaten by 3.5 lengths. But Sky Heights' last 400 was faster than Native Jazz. Despite that Sky Heights was beaten by seven lengths!

We suggest you be very wary of the media telling you if you were impressed with the way Native Jazz finished off the race then you also must be impressed with Sky Heights because his final 400 was faster.

We certainly do not buy that one. We are not impressed with horses who finish fast but are still beaten out of sight. It means they went like snails earlier. Of course they should have a lot in reserve. Of course they should run on strongly. If not they'll be tailed off last.

That's not to say we are dismissing Sky Heights. He was simply not set to run a big race first up over 1400 metres. But he had to show something over the last 400, which he did. Otherwise there would certainly be major doubts about him coming up this time in.

Shocking value?

Last Saturday in a 15 horse Welter at Sandown, we found it hard to believe that Jiver was showing only $3.00 on SuperTab as they jumped. On track he started a terrible $3.50.

Maybe it was the Damien Oliver factor. He replaced Nigel Callow on Jiver, who also rose a little in weight to 56kg. But Damien Oliver doesn't perform miracles. If punters take way under the odds on some of the horses he rides then they will lose their money.

It was a tough, open 1300 metres race with many chances. Six of the field were also first up. Jiver was given every chance but did nothing in the straight and finished a battling fifth, beaten by over three lengths. After the race Damien Oliver said the horse did not feel right in its action over the concluding stages. A vet's examination failed to reveal any abnormality. If you were basically exhausted at the end of a run your action wouldn't be too good either!

What amazes us is how in big fields, with many horses unknown quantities first up, punters will latch on to one horse and give it a 30% or so chance of winning. That means they are giving the rest of the field, the remaining 15 or so horses only around a 70% chance of winning. It usually just does not add up. The favourite will not win those races anywhere near 30% of the time.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
First up "good things"
Worst bet of the day - don't follow the herd

Top Odds Are Important

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