31/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Heavy tracks are not Slow tracks!

Bo Best finished off his race powerfully over 1000 metres on a Slow rated track at Victoria Park on August 11. He was looking for more distance. So last Saturday at the same track in a restricted 3YO race over 1300 metres, Bo Best started at only $4.00. But the track was rated Heavy.

Bo Best did not go a yard in the conditions. He tailed off at the beginning of the race! There had been heavy rain for an hour leading into the race and the gelding hated the Heavy rated track. You cannot get a clearer example. Horses with good Slow track form do not necessarily handle the Heavy. To take short odds about them is an unnecessary risk. It is best to leave them alone. There are always better bets around in other races or on other days.

Also at Victoria Park in the same race smart Tony McEvoy trained filly Liberty Rose, resumed from a spell. She was sent out the $3.50 favourite, despite top weight of 56kg. Her only disclosed form was on Good rated tracks. She settled on the speed, was given every chance by Simon Price, but weakened over the last 100 to be well beaten.

Taking short odds about horses without Heavy track form is an unnecessary risk. With Liberty Rose there was the triple whammy of risk factors:
1. Unknown on a Heavy track.
2. First up from a spell.
3. Top weight of 56kg.

Swiss Echo - strong win

At his third run back from a spell this Gai Waterhouse trained four year old gelding won a 1500 metres Welter most impressively at Rosehill. He had the widest barrier,10, in the field. Displaying excellent gate speed he settled outside the leader and went away at the 250. It was his fourth win from 10 starts.

After the race we heard, "He looked the bet of the day and he ran up to it." Hmmnn. Wide barrier and $1.90 on the tote. Best betting ring odds of $2.10. To us that is not what makes a "bet of the day". You need a 50% winning strike rate and you don't even make a dollar.

Go Nanny, go!

That outstanding five year old mare Nanny Maroon has returned from a winter spell in scintillating form.

At Rosehill in an 1100 metres Fillies and Mares Listed Handicap she had top weight of 56kg. and started from barrier 13 of 14. Despite being wide throughout, and very wide at that around the home turn, she showed great acceleration and cruised away win by two lengths. It was her tenth win from only 18 starts!

She was backed in heavily on track from $3.20 to $2.60. After the race even the $2.60 looked like easy money, but I am not so sure about that. There are plenty of other horses who also look "good things" first up at short odds and fail to deliver.

Lock Parole away

Those short priced Hawkes' trained horses just keep on finding ways to lose. Parole, $2.80 favourite, looked a very big show at Doomben in a Fillies and Mares restricted event. Shortly after the jump at the 1100 the saddle shifted on Parole. Goodbye money. She finished last.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
First up "good things"
Value bets
Worst bet of the day - don't follow the herd
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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