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31/1/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.
Here are the results from Flemington, Saturday, 17th. January, 2009.
Flemington
Track: Good
Rail: 9 metres out
Penetrometer: 4.81
R1 $75,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Tariks
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 2-12
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R2 $75,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Soul Diva
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 2-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Noonan
R3 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Tigresque
Days since last start: 72
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-16
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: David Hayes
R4 $100,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2520 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Vigor
Days since last start: 16
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1610 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Barbaricus
Days since last start: 74
Distance last start: 3200
Result last start: 19-22
Result this start: 9th..
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Duncan Miller
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R6 $150,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Silky Smooth
Days since last start: 35
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R7 $125,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Commanding Hope
Days since last start: 140
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 12-14
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Chris Hyland
R8 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: Fuduchonne
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 3-6
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Comments:
What stands out is the short priced, unplaced, losing favourite in R6, Silky Smooth. It had a break of 35 days between 1400 metres runs. In R3 and R5 both favourites were resuming from breaks of over 70 days. Neither won.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Night horse racing. Should you bet on it?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/1/2009
The Track and Distance horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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