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31/1/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne as the results should be comparable there to Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide races on Saturdays over the long term.
Here are the results from Sandown Lakeside, Saturday, 24th. January, 2009.
Sandown Lakeside
Track: Good
Rail: True
Penetrometer: 5.32
R1 $60,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Perikon
Days since last start: 20
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-6
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Ricky Maund
R2 $60,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 9
Favourite: Fifth Avenue Lady
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-9
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
R3 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Manila Jewel
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1455
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: David Hayes
R4 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Lord Monty
Days since last start: 54
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 8-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Dean Holland
Trainer: David Hayes
R5 $60,000 3YO. Rst72. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Aqaleem
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: David Hayes
R6 $60,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Sooze
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 4-10
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darren Weir
R7 $60,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Divine Rebel
Days since last start: 106
Distance last start: 2040
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 11th.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Michael Moroney
R8 $60,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Cent Otto
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brendan Ward
Trainer: Peter Maher
Comments:
Three of the four winning favourites had their previous start no more than 14 days earlier. In R7 Divine Rebel finished last over 1300 metres, first up after a spell of 106 days. In R8 Cent Otto had a break of 24 days and finished second over 1500 metres.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Night horse racing. Should you bet on it?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/1/2009
The Track and Distance horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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