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31/1/2009 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the horse racing results from Saturday, 24th. January, 2009.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Real Saga
Result: first
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

R2 $70,000 3YO. Rst81. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Coniston Bluebird
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Bede Murray
Winner: African Prince
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Zuhoor
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Ivory Pegasus
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $31.90
Jockey: Grant Buckley
Trainer: Robert Price

R4 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Falling In Love
Result: third
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Grahame Begg
Winner: Rolling Stock
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.50
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Clinton McDonald


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $25,500 Rst86. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Centurytwentyone
Result: first
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: Dennis O'Leary

R4 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Equal Favourite: Tramuntana
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly
Equal Favourite: Idalou
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Scott Bailey
Trainer: Trevor Dansie
Winner: Taos Pleasure
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.30
Jockey: Tillie Neve
Trainer: John Hickmott

This edition of Punt to Win:
Night horse racing. Should you bet on it?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 24/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 17/1/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 10/1/2009
The Track and Distance horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 24/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 17/1/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 10/1/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/1/2009
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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