30/11/2001 edition

Two Year Old Races
Follow the Betting as a Guide?

First starters - money does not talk

The standard racing media comment about first starters is to "Watch the market ... follow the money." That is nothing but a punting myth. It is guaranteed to lose you money.

Last Saturday the Merson Cooper Stakes was run at Sandown. It was a set weights with penaltiies Listed race for two year olds over 1000 metres. This 11 horse race had eight first starters. The other three horses had each raced once.

The best supported runner in the betting ring was the Lee Freedman trained first starter True Glo who firmed from $5.00 to $4.20. This gelding, ridden by Melbourne Cup winning jockey Scott Seamer finished tenth, beaten by nearly 15 lengths.

There was a little nibble for the Colin Little trained first starter Blur who firmed from $6.00 to $5.50. This gelding never looked like winning but at least finished third, beaten by one and a half lengths.

No other horse firmed in the betting, which was more than understandable considering the opening market was over 160%!!

The winner, a filly named British Lion, had barrier 10. She was out fast and led throughout to win in the very slick time of 55.58 seconds, only 1.08 seconds outside the track record. Not bad for a two year old filly. Her starting price? She eased from $15.00 to start at $21.00. She paid up to $36.60 on the New South Wales tote. From those price movements there was also no really serious professional money or serious inside money on British Lion.

So much for following the market. So much for money talking. Yet Trevor Bailey, Melbourne foreman for his father and trainer Alan Bailey was not surprised and reportedly said, "It didn't surprise me she went so quickly as everything she's shown us suggests she is a runner." The previous Tuesday she had defeated an older stablemate, the city placed Breezer over 650 metres at Caulfield.

Apparently British Lion's owner, the New South Wales located Meringo Stud Farm were happy to let British Lion go around for the $48,750 first prize. And why wouldn't they? She only cost $10,000.

It is quite clear - money does not talk in a field full of first starters. The betting is not an accurate guide. That is a punting myth.

Purchase prices at the yearling sales are no real guide either. Here are what some of the runners cost as yearlings and where they finished:

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites
These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

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