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30/9/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

There were no races with fields of seven or fewer runners on Saturday, 23rd. September at Caulfield, Rosehill, Eagle Farm or Morphetville, so here are the results from the previous week.

Here are the results from Saturday, 16th. September.

Moonee Valley - Manikato Stakes Day: Track Good

R2 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Here De Angels
Result: first
Starting price: $1.24
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Matthew Allen
Trainer: Lee Freedman

R5 $300,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Apache Cat
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.30
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Greg Eurell
Winner: Lad Of The Manor
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Roger Hoysted

Doomben: Track Dead

R2 $40,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: A Little Naughty
Result: third
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: John Morrisey
Winner: Power And Gold
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Sheree Drake
Trainer: Maryann Brosnan

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - poor betting value favourites
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Quick Pick Quinellas horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill & Caulfield
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 23/9/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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