Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Sandown Lakeside - 23/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Fifth Avenue Lady	59kg.	8	1300	$8.00	9/9
Eagle Farm - 23/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Alverta	60.5kg.	6	1200	$3.80	3/7
Flemington - 16/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Absolute Faith	59kg.	5	1200	$8.00	1/6
Grand Destiny	59kg.	2	2520	$5.50	2/10
Time Matters	59kg.	5	1410	$4.20fav.	2/14
Caulfield - 9/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sir Skalahad	59kg.	4	2000	$7.00	3/5
Moonee Valley - 2/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Testalux	59kg.	7	2040	$6.00	8/8
Gold Coast - 2/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Burdekin Blues	61kg.	2	900	$1.60fav.	1/11
Morphettville - 2/1/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Tosstestaroan	60kg.	3	1600	$6.50	4/10
Randwick - 26/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Lorne Dancer	64kg.	2	1400	$6.50	2/9
Caulfield - 26/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Here De Angels	59kg.	11	1200	$2.60fav.	1/16
Doomben - 26/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rasmussen	60kg.	9	1200	$2.80fav.	3/11
Randwick - 19/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Bank Robber	61kg.	10	1200	$2.60fav.	5/15
Flemington - 19/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Winter King	59kg.	3	1000	$7.50	3/5
Morphettville - 19/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Ooleo	59.5kg.	10	1100	$4.60fav.	1/15
Flemington - 12/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Stormhill	59kg.	9	2000	$9.50	4/12
Mind Your Head	59kg.	5	1200	$9.00	7/11
Eagle Farm - 12/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rasmussen	59kg.	11	1200	$3.10fav..	1/14
Secrets Untold	59kg.	2	1600	$4.20	3/12
Alverta	59kg.	5	1300	$5.50	1/15
Rosehill - 5/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
News Alert	60kg.	4	1100	$4.60	4/8
Caulfield - 5/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Tango's Choice	59kg.	3	1200	$5.50	5/10
Doomben - 5/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
The Jackal	59.5kg.	4	1200	$7.00	7/15
Morphettville - 5/12/2009
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Moggaden	59.5kg.	8	1950	$3.00fav.	8/9

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