30/1/2010 edition

Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites

Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?

These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on a regular basis.

We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.

Here are the results from the Chester Manifold Stakes Day horse racing meeting held at Flemington on Saturday, 16th. January, 2010.

Flemington
Track: R1-3 Dead, R4-8 Good
Rail: Out 9 metres
Penetrometer: 4.90

R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Royal Commands
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Chris Symons
Trainer: Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra

R2 $75,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Encosta Belief
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-7
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R3 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1610 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Bangerang Quikpic
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 4-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jarrod Fry
Trainer: Darren Weir

R4 $90,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2520 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Apprehend
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 2800
Result last start: 2-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Awimoweh
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 3-8
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: John McArdle

R6 $150,000 Listed. Chester Manifold Stakes.
Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Time Matters
Days since last start: 21
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 3-16
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Darren Weir

R7 $125,000 Listed. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Secret Flyer
Days since last start: 77
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 6-13
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mark Young

R8 $75,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Golden Honey
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1700
Result last start: 8-15
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jason Maskiell
Trainer: Andrew J. Payne

Comments:
A profitable day for punters backing favourites ismall loss day for punters backing favourites with good winners in R2, R3 and R4. At their previous starts these horses finished first, second and fourth. In R8 the favourite, Golden Honey, finished eighth at here previous start and did not win. While in R7 Secret Flyer missed a place after resuming from a spell. Not uncommon.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Unraced horses often mean bad betting races
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Pre Post Market horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 23/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 16/1/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 9/1/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 23/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 16/1/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/1/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 9/1/2010
Punt to Win index

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