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30/1/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 24.

Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $50,000 2YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Deafen
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctation: $2.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Wager
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $50,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Taikun
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctation: $3.60
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: Marfickle
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.70
Jockey: Ronnie Stewart
Trainer: Jack Denham

Victoria Park: Track Good
R2 $20,000 4YO and upward. Rs0ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dashiki
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.20
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Lust No More
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Len Smith

R3 $40,000 2YO Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lunaspur
Result: second
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctation: $1.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Golden Pedigree
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.80
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Rosehill horse racing betting system
This apprentice jockey is good
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown Hillside betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/1/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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