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29/3/2008 edition
Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class
We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class,"
to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly
we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above
the minimum."
Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how
handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse
will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.
In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety
vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly
with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.
The table below shows how horses
that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting
ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.)
We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information
over the long term.
Randwick - 22/3/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Wag's Pride |
59kg. |
7 |
1200 |
$4.60 |
10/10 |
Ten Of Hearts |
59kg. |
3 |
1200 |
$7.00 |
7/10 |
Hot Danish |
595kg. |
7 |
1400 |
$1.80fav. |
1/12 |
Rosehill - 15/3/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Fooram |
61kg. |
13 |
1800 |
$6.50 |
10/13 |
Pasikatera |
59.5kg. |
9 |
1300 |
$8.00 |
11/14 |
Flemington - 15/3/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Let Go Thommo |
60kg. |
9 |
1000 |
$6.50 |
2/9 |
Cheltenham - 15/3/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Campaspe River |
59kg. |
7 |
1260 |
$8.00 |
3/8 |
Cape Danger |
59kg. |
4 |
1260 |
$3.40 |
4/8 |
Rosehill - 8/3/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Nuclear Sky |
59kg. |
4 |
1900 |
$8.50 |
1/8 |
Spirit Of Tara |
59kg. |
5 |
2000 |
$8.50 |
3/10 |
Eagle Farm - 1/3/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Mitanni |
61kg. |
9 |
1200 |
$4.00 |
6/10 |
Canterbury - 23/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Testimonial |
59kg. |
3 |
1250 |
$8.00 |
5/7 |
Zarvista |
59kg. |
6 |
1250 |
$3.00fav. |
4/7 |
Kyros |
59kg. |
5 |
1200 |
$5.00 |
4/6 |
Randwick - 16/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Blessus |
59kg. |
1 |
1200 |
$5.00 |
5/11 |
Posadas |
59.5kg. |
8 |
1200 |
$3.00fav. |
1/10 |
Moonee Valley - 16/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Roman Arch |
59.5kg. |
6 |
1500 |
$6.00 |
3/7 |
Cheltenham - 16/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Tosstestaroan |
60kg. |
6 |
1450 |
$2.30fav. |
3/13 |
Exalted Ego |
60.5kg. |
16 |
2250 |
$4.60fav. |
8/16 |
Caulfield - 9/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Cargo Cult |
59.5kg. |
11 |
1400 |
$10.00 |
4/12 |
Morphettville - 9/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Oblglo |
59kg. |
4 |
1600 |
$8.00 |
4/12 |
Rosehill - 2/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Blessus |
59kg. |
8 |
1200 |
$6.00 |
3/8 |
Super Smudge |
59kg. |
4 |
1300 |
$5.50 |
3/7 |
Doomben - 2/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Mr Hornblower |
59kg. |
4 |
1350 |
$3.30fav. |
3/11 |
Morphettville - 2/2/2008 |
Horse |
Weight |
Barrier |
Distance |
SP Odds |
Finish |
Exalted Ego |
59kg. |
3 |
1800 |
$5.00 |
1/12 |
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This edition of Punt to Win:
Publishing punters' winning horse racing betting systems
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The High Strike Rate Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/3/2008 - 22/3/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 22/3/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 15/3/2008 & 8/3/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 8/3/2008
Punt to Win
index
You Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.
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