28/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Strong win

At the Canterbury night meeting, held concurrently with Moonee Valley, there was a very interesting 1100 metres Listed race. It was well won by Oamaru Force who resumed from a six months' spell. He is a lightly raced four year old horse and came into the race with four wins from seven starts and an excellent fresh record.

His trainer David Hall is very good at preparing horses to win first up. On track Oamaru Force firmed from $8.50 to $7.00. Another key to giving Oamaru Force a strong chance was the barrier, one. That barrier is a huge plus at Canterbury.

Boom four year old gelding Clay Shaker, who had seven wins from 14 starts and was solidly backed on track from $4.60 to $3.50 was disappointing after being given every chance by Danny Beasley. He weakened to finish eighth, beaten by five lengths.

Might And Power's half brother, the much hyped and overrated Matter Of Honour, once again took all the punters' money. He was supported from $6.00 to $5.50 and finished thirteenth of the 14 runners. His jockey, the talented Mitch Newman reported that after missing the start Matter Of Honour did not travel throughout the race and didn't respond when put under pressure and asked for an effort. Those are the sort of horses it is best to let others back!

Dreaded double whammy - watch out

Stylish Lass had four wins and one placing from nine starts. She had raced four times on Good rated tracks. They were her unplaced runs.

Last Saturday at Warwick Farm, where the track was rated Good, Stylish Lass was backed in from $5.00 to $4.00 favourite. She went up in weight from 52.5kg. to 57.5kg. She also went from barrier three to barrier 11.

So Stylish Lass copped the dreaded double whammy - substantial weight increase and poor barrier compared to the previous start. Throw in firm track queries and you have a recipe for a losing bet. And it sure was. She finished a well beaten sixth in the 1100 metres Fillies Listed race.

The winner of Saturday's Fillies Listed race was Faith Hill who convincingly won a midweek 3YO Fillies race, restricted to fillies with no metropolitan wins. She only dropped in weight by 1.5kg. from that restricted race. That tells you about the lack of major class difference between the fillies restricted race and a fillies Listed race when you are dealing with lightly raced fillies.

Little Deuce Coupe, who was first up, was only beaten a short neck by Faith Hill in the midweek 3YO Fillies race. With a significant jockey change for last Saturday's Fillies Listed race - Lenny Beasley was replaced by Jim Cassidy, it was on the cards that Little Deuce Coupe would continue her good form and was set for a big run.

Little Deuce Coupe clipped the heels of another runner at the 1000 and dipped. At the 600 when another horse clipped her shoulder she was taken out and became unbalanced. Jim Cassidy said he was not happy with her action from that point. It certainly explains why the filly, who was well supported, firming from $6.50 to $5.00, ran such an uncharacteristically poor race and finished well down the track.

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