28/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Caulfield Sunday meeting

Most punters who tried to "pick the winner" at Caulfield with one selection had no hope on the day and would have been wiped out.
Have a look at some of the winners from the eight races:
Serious Drink $13.90
Haste Ye Back $19.10
Pure Theatre $30.70
Mr. Murphy $12.30
Debrief $25.80

You are not getting prices like these because the tote is generous and deciding to run at a loss for the day. It's because the winners were near impossible to find for the average punter

What about the favourites?
Pernod $2.50
North Boy $1.70
The Secondmortgage $2.80
Ugachaka $3.50

These prices were totally unrealistic. Let's look at North Boy.

1. He had raced four times for four wins.
2. All his races were over 1200 metres.
3. He was stepping up to 1400 metres for the first time.
4. He was carrying 57.5kg., a little more than he had carried before.
5. There were 13 other runners in the race.
6. Many of those lightly raced horses had good form and were open to improvement.
7. North Boy did not have a 60% chance of winning the race, the other 13 runners only a 40% chance between them!!

One favourite won on the day, the outstanding Northerly. His starting price was only $1.80. That price was also under the odds. Northerly won a tight finish by a short neck with Universal Prince and Kaapstaad Way breathing down his neck. On another day one of those horses could have easily beaten him, but at Northerly's odds of $1.80 you have to win 55% of the time to just about break even.

Good runs at Caulfield

There were plenty of good runs from the meeting. Here are a few.

Purple Groove finished well. Will be fitter.
Umrum had no luck from barrier 17. Fought hard.
Fubu was badly held up in the straight. Strong finish.
Weasel Will is a forgotten horse. Hit the line hard.
Tyrolean has a poor strike rate. Really running on at the end.
Sky Heights is getting fitter. Made up lengths in the straight.
King Keitel never gave up when challenged by Northerly.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Strong win
Handicapping tips
Why back this horse?
Not quite the Melbourne Cup
And more...

Top Odds Are Important

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