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28/8/2010
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from the horse racing meeting held on Saturday, 7th. August, 2010 at the Flemington horse racing track.
Flemington.
Track: Slow.
Rail: Out 9 metres.
Penetrometer: 4.91
R1 $75,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Trisara
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1100
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 6th.
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Tony Vasil
R2 $70,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 10
Favourite: Censor
Days since last start: 24
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R3 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Perturbo
Days since last start: 97
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 8-17
Result this start: 8th.
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson
R4 $70,000 Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Pass Me By
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 2000
Result last start: 2-8
Result this start: 9th.
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Taylor Lovelock-Wiggins
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
R5 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Pinnacles
Days since last start: 14
Distance last start: 1514
Result last start: 5-13
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Jake Noonan
Trainer: Rick Hore-Lacy
R6 $150,000 Aurie's Star Handicap. Group 3.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Elusive Touch
Days since last start: 28
Distance last start: 1200
Result last start: 2-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
R7 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: 16
Favourite: Moudre
Days since last start: 84
Distance last start: 1800
Result last start: 1-14
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
R8 $70,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: 15
Favourite: Rubinacci
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 1-11
Result this start: 7th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Tony Vasil
Comments:
Punters betting favourites had a winning meeting with three winning favourites. Of these winning favourites, Censor won its previous race 28 days earlier and Aurie's Star finished second 28 days earlier. They both won at the same distance as their previous race. The third winning favourite Moudre in R7 was first up over 1410 metres after a spell of 84 days. The other first up favourite of the meeting, Perturbo in R3, after a spell of 97 days, ran unplaced. In R1 Trisara jumped up unsuccessfully in distance from 1100 metres 15 days earlier to 1410 metres while in R8 Rubinacci after 17 days unsuccessfully dropped sharply back in distance from 2400 metres to 1800 metres. In R5, after being unplaced at its previous start, Pinnacles was sent out a short, well backed $3.20 favourite and did not win.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Following Horse Racing Media Tipsters' Betting Advice & Betting Tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Wide Barrier horse racing betting system
Horse racing betting facts, tips & odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Free sports betting package
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 21/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 14/8/2010
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 7/8/2010
Get those betting odds
Future winners - unlucky horses
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/8/2010
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/8/2010
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 7/8/2010
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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