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28/7/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 21st. July, 2012.

Rosehill: Track Slow.

R2 $85,000 3YO & UP. Fillies & Mares. Rating 83. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Madam Nash
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Matiya's Pride
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.40
Jockey: Alysha Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller

R3 $85,000 3YO & UP. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Skytrain
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: Peter Snowden

Eagle Farm: Track Slow.

R1 $50,000 Rating 95. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rucing Heart
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Bell Academy
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.00
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Bradley Herne

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 14th. July, 2012.

Caulfield: Track Heavy.

R2 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rusambo
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Winner: Proper Madam
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Jason Warren

Doomben: Track Heavy.

R1 $45,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Signified
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.15
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Rosie Myers
Trainer: Kelso Wood

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Double Image
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Les Kelly

R4 $45,000 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Cash 'N' Style
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Maija Vance
Trainer: Steven O'Dea

R5 $45,000 Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Ausworld
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Maija Vance
Trainer: Pat Duff
Winner: Racing Heart
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Anthony Allen
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to win money betting on horse racing
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Key Jockey and Trainer Combination free horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 21/7/2012 & 14/7/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/7/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
 Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
 Punt to Win 7/7/2012
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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