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28/1/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 21st January.

Sandown Hillside: Track Good

R1 $45,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Bonnelle
Result: second
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Fanfares
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Danerich
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
Jockey: Rowan Waymouth
Trainer: Robbie Laing
Winner: Tesbury Jack
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $27.20
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: Julie Scott

R4 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dismissal
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.30
Jockey: Ricky DeBono
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Vroom Vroom
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.70
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R7 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Subtle Irony
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.60
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Adrian McGregor
Winner: Gaju Chief
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Heath Conners

This edition of Punt to Win:
Big winners, dubious form lines?
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Winning Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - Sandown Hillside
Betting favourites in small fields - Eagle Farm
Betting tips from the track - Randwick
Betting tips from the track - Sandown Hillside
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 21/1/2006
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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