27/10/2000 edition

Can't Take a Trick

The Freedmans just can't seem to get a winner at present. At Caulfield they had four runners. Three year old filly  Crowned Glory who put in some top runs earlier this year, including finishing  the closest of seconds  in the $2.5 million Golden Slipper Stakes at Rosehill, was a disappointing ninth second up. She  failed first up at Caulfield with the state of the track, which was Slow, officially used as an excuse. However back in February she ran a close third on a Slow track at Caulfield.

Sarwatch finished last out of 16, beaten by 15 lengths while Honour The Name finished second last in a field of 15, but was only beaten by seven lengths. There are excuses here as the horse is primarily a wet tracker. But why run it in a tough race on a Good track from barrier 14?

At least three year old filly Queen ran a good race and finished a close second.
The Freedmans were too successful for too long to have lost it overnight. They will bounce back. In the meantime don't let  their better chances get under your guard. Punters are rapidly deserting their horses but will be indiscriminate. This will mean some of their good chances will go around over the odds and offer excellent value. Do not let them get under your guard.

Don't Follow the Herd

On the other hand tote punters are now all jumping on to the John Size bandwagon and lowering the odds they get on the tote. At Randwick last Saturday Power Of Pegasus won. It eased in the betting ring and started at 6/1($7.00). In this 17 horse field the best tote price was just $5.00 on SuperTab.

The tote will never  lose. If too many punters get it  right, the tote just reduces the payout to them so they all get poorer value. If you are a tote punter it may well pay you now to start backing against some John Size trained horses. It is just possible you may get some decent value, especially if his horses are terrible unders on the tote like Power Of Pegasus was last Saturday. 

Next: Punt to Win 20/10/2000

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