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27/9/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about horse racing favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring horse racing favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday horse races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the horse racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most horse races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 13th. September, 2014.

Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $45,000 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Our Boy Nicholas
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $1.65
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Toby Edmonds
Winner: Bush Aviator
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: Tony Gollan


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 6th. September, 2014.

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R1 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Foreign Prince
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Winona Costin
Trainer: David Payne

R2 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Equal Favourite: Surpass
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $4.20
Jockey: Brodie Loy
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Equal Favourite: Slivovitz
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $4.20
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Kris Leesr
Winner: World Wide
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Winona Costin
Trainer: Bede Murray

R3 $175,000 Furious Stakes. 3YO. Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Earthquake
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $2.05
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Winx
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Chris Waller


Moonee Valley: Track Good.

R1 $80,000 Rating 96. Handicap.
Distance: 2500 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Count Encosta
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Damian Lane
Trainer: Darren Weir
Winner: Mulaqen
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Chris Waller


Doomben: Track Good.

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Hi Son
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: Tony Gollan

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing & gambling betting odds
The Free Class Horse horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 20/9/2014 & 13/9/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 20/9/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 13/9/2014 & 6/9/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 6/9/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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