27/8/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, August 21.

Warwick Farm: Track Dead
R3 $150,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Dance Hero
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Fastnet Rock
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Paul Perry

Doomben: Track Good
R2 $25,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Loughnan
Result: seventh
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Paul N Nolan
Winner: Rembrandts Venture
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Bruce McLachlan

Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $20,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Maduro
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Beau Gallant
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Kelvin Sanderson
Trainer: Kelvin Bourke

R3 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs0ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sure Bet
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Shayne Cahill
Trainer: Mark Minervini
Winner: Cielo Road
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.10
Jockey: David Tootell
Trainer: John Barns

R8 $20,000 Mares. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Southern Class
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Oak Express
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.60
Jockey: David Carney
Trainer: David Balfour

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting Gai Waterhouse trained "good things"
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 20/8/2004
Punt to Win index

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