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27/6/2009
edition
Win Betting
Horse Racing Favourites
Do horse racing favourites win when the money is on? Do favourites lose when they ease in the betting? Are favourites more successful over longer distances than 1000 metres? Do favourites lose on wet tracks? Do favourites lose when first up from a spell? Are horse racing favourites worse bets in large fields?
These questions and more will be answered on a regular basis as we update the results of horse racing favourites on
a regular basis.
We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Melbourne. These results over the long term should be comparable with results of Sydney, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide races on Saturdays.
Here are the results from Moonee Valley, Saturday, 20th. June, 2009.
Moonee Valley
Track: Heavy
Rail: True position
Penetrometer: 5.58
R1 $70,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Frenzilian
Days since last start: 39
Distance last start: 2400
Result last start: 13-14
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Brad McLean
Trainer: Heather Frew
R2 $70,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3200 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Pentiffic
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 3400
Result last start: Lost rider -7
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston
R3 $70,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 12
Favourite: River Bypass
Days since last start: 10
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Heath Conners
R4 $70,000 3YO. Open.
Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 8
Favourite: Woppitt
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 3-10
Result this start: 5th.
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R5 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 12
Equal Favourite: Clandon
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 7-10
Result this start: 3rd.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Michael Kent
Equal Favourite: Swooper
Days since last start: 17
Distance last start: 1400
Result last start: 5-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Nathan Rose
Trainer: Darryl Dodson
R6 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 14
Favourite: Scenic Find
Days since last start: 15
Distance last start: 1628
Result last start: 1-9
Result this start: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Linda Meech
Trainer: Len Xuereb
R7 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: 11
Favourite: Davcon
Days since last start: 7
Distance last start: 1600
Result last start: 3-13
Result this start: 1st.
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Heath Conners
R8 $70,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 13
Favourite: Shrewd Rhythm
Days since last start: 22
Distance last start: 1000
Result last start: 1-10
Result this start: 4th.
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: ---
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price
Comments:
A horrible day for punters backing the racing favourites with only one winner.
In R1 and R2, the jumps races, both favourites were unplaced at their previous starts. In addition, in R1 Frenzilian had 39 days between starts. In R5 the two losing equal favourites were also both unplaced at their previous starts.
This edition of Punt to Win:
Making money betting wide barrier horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 20/6/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 13/6/2009
Win betting - horse racing favourites: 6/6/2009
The New Jockey horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/6/2009
Betting favourites in small fields: 13/6/2009 & 6/6/2009
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/6/2009
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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