26/12/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, December 20.

Randwick: Track Good
R1 $50,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dante's Paradiso
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: head
Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctation: $1.60
Tote dividends' range: $1.30 - $1.30
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: David Payne

R2 $50,000 Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bocconcini
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.30
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Pour Ma Mere
Winning/losing margin: short head
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctation: $13.00
Tote dividends' range: $10.10 - $13.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Sue Grills

Flemington: Track Dead
R2 $60,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Shady Brady
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: 1 length
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctation: $2.50
Jockey: Ryan Martin
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Tenancy
Winning/losing margin: 1 length
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
Tote dividends' range: $4.40 - $6.50
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Tommy Hughes

Cheltenham: Track Good
R3 $22,000 3YO and upward. Fillies and Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1250 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Devil In Disguise
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 2.8 lengths
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Cody Morgan
Trainer: Bill Papazaharoudakis
Winner: Feisty Lass
Winning/losing margin: 0.5 lengths
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
Tote dividends' range: $3.50 - $3.70
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
TAB takeover battle/betting exchanges
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/12/2003
Punt to Win index

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