26/7/2002 edition

Hype Horses
Poor Odds

When the racing media and punters all agree that a horse is a future champion you can just about guarantee one thing for sure - poor odds when the horse next races.

Here is what Sky Racing's tipster at the track, Ron Dufficy had to say about 2YO colt Thorn Park, a couple of minutes before the opening race at Rosehill last Saturday. (Thorn Park had very impressively won his first race by over three lengths three weeks earlier.)

"I know it's easy to get carried away with a horse after just one run but there's a sense of expectation about this colt. He's got real presence about him, strolled around the yard here, looked in tip top shape.

$1.20. (The New South Wales tote price at the time.) Bookies are risking him on track where there's been good support for the Queenslander Strictly Smart who looks superb as well. A front running type of horse.

With the rail out eight metres if he can slow them up in front and dash home in 34 it's going to make it awfully hard for this star colt Thorn Park, but I can't tip against him. I think he'll win. I think the big danger and the only danger is Strictly Smart from Queensland."

Comments:
1. Despite saying it was "easy to get carried away", was Ron Dufficy carried away? He did call the colt a "star" after one three lengths win.

2. Bookies hardly risked the colt. In the betting he firmed from $1.65 to $1.50. Considering he rose in weight from 55.5kg. to 58kg., had barrier 11 of 11, had only raced once, was a backmarker and the rail was out eight metres, the $1.50 was not a risk at all.

3. Those odds of $1.50 were a long term win for the bookies. They knew that less than two out of three colts would win under the conditions that Thorn Park faced last Saturday. At $1.50 a two out of three winning strike rate (67%) is needed just to break even.

4. The $1.50 was a risk for the punters, not the bookies. This time the punters escaped, as did the tote punters (odds as poor as $1.30 on the New South Wales tote), but long term the bookies knew they were on a winner.

Ron Dufficy mentioned there was "good support" on track for Strictly Smart. The gelding opened at $4.80 and eased to $6.50. Also, after travelling 400 metres of the 1200 metres race "front running" Strictly Smart was not leading, but fourth in the field of 11.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Hype horses - no value odds
Make money - beat poor betting odds favourites
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/7/2002
Punt to Win index

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