Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Sandown Lakeside - 19/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Jungle Ruler	59kg.	9	1600	$2.40fav.	2/10
Ipswich - 19/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rainbow Styling	59kg.	7	1666	$4.00	1/10
Yield Curve	59kg.	6	2150	$5.50eq.fav.	1/16
Morphettville - 19/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Gogocanny	59.5kg.	12	1200	$7.50	8/14
Randwick - 12/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rockwood	60.5kg.	6	1600	$9.00	8/8
Eagle Farm - 12/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
First Command	59.5kg.	16	1000	$2.05fav.	2/17
Flemington - 5/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Leica Larrikin	59kg.	8	1600	$8.50	1/14
Avienus	59kg.	8	2000	$8.00	4/13
Morphettville - 5/6/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Rollins	59.5kg.	5	1550	$5.50	2/14
Silky Smooth	59kg.	4	1400	$9.00	5/13
Randwick - 29/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Centennial Park	59.5kg.	2	1100	$10.00	7/10
Moonee Valley - 29/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Stanzout	59kg.	11	1200	$10.00	8/14
Belscenica	59kg.	11	1500	$4.20fav.	3/12
Morphettville - 29/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Ooleo	60kg.	6	1000	$3.60	5/11
Caulfield - 22/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Commanding Hope	59.5kg.	1	1000	$5.50	5/9
Morphettville - 22/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Silky Smooth	60kg.	1	1200	$10.00	9/12
Doomben - 15/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Forestreno	59.5kg.	5	1010	$6.00	4/10
Rosehill - 8/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Beaucoup	59kg.	6	1500	$8.00	5/10
Vision And Power	61kg.	4	2000	$7.00	3/9
Lucky Leak	59.5kg.	10	1300	$4.80	2/15
Black Routine	59kg.	5	1300	$4.40fav.	3/15
Hawkesbury - 1/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Strat's Flyer	59kg.	7	1600	$3.20fav.	11/12
Mentality	59kg.	3	1600	$7.50	8/12
Eagle Farm - 1/5/2010
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Steel Dragon	59kg.	12	1200	$5.00	1/15

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