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26/3/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, March 19.

Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2470 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Ride The Rocket
Result: first
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Equal Favourite: Our Perfect World
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Result: second
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: David Halliday

R2 $22,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Tiara Dane
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Phantom Flight
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Holly McKechnie
Trainer: Darryl Dodson

R3 $25,000 3YO. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1460 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Silent Action
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Wayne Kerford
Trainer: John Hickmott
Winner: Rosden
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.40
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Roslyn Day

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding individual trainers - secret to winning bets
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields - 12/3/2005
Betting favourites in small fields - 19/3/2005
Betting tips from the track - Australian Cup Day
Betting tips from the track - Golden Slipper Day
Future winners - unlucky horses
 Punt to Win 11/3/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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