Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 19/2/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Hawk Island	59kg.	3	2000	$6.50	1/7
Flemington - 19/2/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Larry's Never Late	59kg.	3	2000	$6.50	7/13
Morphettville - 19/2/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Reflex	59kg.	11	1200	$9.00	9/11
Eagle Farm - 12/2/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
The Jackal	60.5kg.	9	1200	$6.50	2/10
Rosehill - 5/2/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Faulconbridge	61kg.	7	1500	$6.00	3/9
Morphettville - 5/2/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Alcopop	59kg.	8	1200	$6.00	9/10
Randwick - 29/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Brasileira	60kg.	1	1300	$7.50	6/7
Sandown Hillside - 29/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Spacecraft	59.5kg.	2	1300	$3.10fav.	4/8
Morphettville - 29/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sacred Snaadee	59kg.	10	1250	$8.00	2/12
Rosehill - 22/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Faulconbridge	59kg.	3	1400	$8.50	3/13
Flemington - 22/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sophie's Spirit	59kg.	10	1620	$10.00	6/11
Grand Duels	59.5kg.	7	1000	$6.00	1/11
Eagle Farm - 22/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Burdekin Blues	61kg.	14	1200	$2.80fav.	7/16
The Jackal	59kg.	8	1200	$9.00	1/16
Gold Coast - 15/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Captain Sonador	60kg.	5	1400	$3.50fav.	3/10
Randwick - 8/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Daintree Road	59.5kg.	1	1600	$3.00	3/8
Caulfield - 8/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Koala Bear	59kg.	8	1400	$8.00	4/8
First Command	59kg.	11	1200	$2.80fav.	1/12
Randwick - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
American Crew	60kg.	2	1400	$4.00	2/7
Tallow	59kg.	9	1400	$4.80	5/10
Border Rebel	60kg.	6	1100	$4.40	3/8
Flemington - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Macedonian	59kg.	13	2800	$3.30fav.	9/16
Macknuckle	59kg.	10	2000	$8.00	2/13
Gold Coast - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Five O'clock	59kg.	11	900	$6.00	3/12
Burdekin Blues	61kg.	2	900	$2.00fav.	5/14
Morphettville - 1/1/2011
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Sandhill Prince	59kg.	5	1600	$11.00	5/8
Indeed I Am	59.5kg.	11	1600	$11.00	10/11

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