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26/1/2008 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategies

Are plunge horses winning betting tips from the race track? Does it pay to follow the money?

When the horse wins, so you can judge for yourself how sensible or otherwise it is over the long term to "follow the money" on the tote, we will also include as an example the the SuperTab tote dividend. Plenty of tote punters will have collected that tote dividend. Most of them would have "followed the money" on the tote.

Are they getting big enough winning dividends when they "follow the money" on the tote to cover themselves for when "following the tote money loses"?

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was. To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (20%) to $4.00 (25%) it will qualify. You can also check tables of betting prices and what their percentages are at Odds calculator.

Rosehill
Saturday, 12th. January, 2008

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote		 Finish
Belle Soleil
 4.00 3.20 6.25% 3.10 1/6
Blake Shinn (jockey) Gary Portelli (trainer)
Kingda Ka
 2.10 1.85 6.43% 2.00 1/8
Blake Shinn Gai Waterhouse
Our Mosstique
 15.00 8.00 5.83% --- 5/6
Peter Wells Clarry Conners
Zuback
 7.00 5.00 5.71% --- 3/9
Matthew Palmer Lee Curtis
Matchless
 8.00 5.00 7.50% --- 4/11
James Bowman Jack Denham
Ten Of Hearts
 5.00 4.00 5.00% --- 2/11
Kody Nestor Kevin Moses
Referees
 4.60 3.60 6.04% --- 7/11
Danny Nikolic Peter Snowden
Viewed
 5.00 3.70 7.03% 3.80 1/12
Danny Nikolic Bart Cummings
Commanding Victory
 8.00 5.00 7.50% --- 9/12
James Bowman Steve Englebrecht
Caulfield
Saturday, 12th. January, 2008

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm SuperTab
Tote		 Finish
La Famelia
 4.40 3.50 5.84% --- 2/9
Craig Newitt (jockey) Mick Price (trainer)
 

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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