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Punt to Win |
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25/6/2004 edition Betting Tips and Strategies Sandown Hillside - genuine Heavy track Slow tracks are not Heavy tracks. There is a world of difference. It is incorrect to assume that Slow track form will stand up on a Heavy track. Let's have a look at some of the results from Sandown Hillside, which had a genuine Heavy track last Saturday. 1. Show Barry was sent out as $4.80 favourite in the first. The 3YO gelding had never raced on a Heavy track and laboured into fourth. 2. Umdinger was backed from $6.00 to $4.60 in an 1800 metres Open. The 5YO gelding had five previous starts on Heavy tracks for two wins and two seconds. Umdinger won by seven lengths. 3. I Do Blue comfortably won an Open over 1500 metres. The 4YO gelding had raced three times on Heavy tracks for a win and two seconds. In the same race Berezny was sent out as favourite and finished seventh in the field of 13, beaten by seven lengths. Berezny had raced 24 times for only one start on a Heavy - a third. Why back that 5YO gelding as favourite? Berezny is a proven non-winner. He now has three wins from 25 starts. 4. Ghost Party won the last of the day, an Open over 1300 metres. This 5YO horse is a proven wet tracker. Prior to Saturday he had raced 11 times on Heavy tracks for six wins and another four placings. His 15 starts on Good to Dead tracks are the reverse - no wins and just six placings. Yet Ghost Party was sent out at $8.00. By comparison Stratton Place, the $2.15 favourite, had raced four times on Heavy tracks for just one win. Yet on tracks better than Heavy he had five wins from 11 starts. That could tell you something. When betting on Heavy tracks look for horses with proven form on Heavy tracks. Form on Slow tracks is irrelevant. It is also worth keeping in mind that the more horses in the field that have not raced on a Heavy track, the more likely there will be an unpredictable upset result. It could just be that one of those horses is an absolute mudlark. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
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