25/5/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Four Year Olds and Upwards, Two Metropolitan Wins

The plodders' races continue to produce terrible results for punters or give no value.

At Rosehill Miss Zoe with just one win from 25 starts won the 1900 metres restricted plodders' race. She started as the $6.00 favourite. That tells you all you need to know about the race.

You're braver than me if you backed her. I'm not interested in backing proven losers. Nor am I interested in taking those sort of odds about a horse with a 4% winning strike rate.

The restricted plodders' race at Morphettville was over 2500 metres.

Punters were asking for trouble when they sent out All The Action, who had barrier 12 in the 13 horse field, as a $4.00 equal favourite. He had absolutely no luck and was trapped on the pace three wide throughout. You wonder why his jockey Wayne Hokai didn't at least give the horse a better show by taking the lead. Anyway, All The Action was over by the 800 and he finished a well beaten ninth.

The winner of the race? Satisha who paid $54.70 on the New South Wales tote. She had the grand total of two wins and another two placings from 19 races. At her last start over 2000 metres, down in grade in a Class 3, she was beaten by 11 lengths.

Good jockeys make things happen

In contrast to Wayne Hokai's bad luck on All The Action, in the next race at Morphettville Brett Prebble could have had a bad luck story on Sylvaner in a 3YO Fillies Listed race over 1600 metres.

There was a slow pace and the filly was midfield and pulling. Lesser jockeys would have blamed the pace of the race for the filly's downfall. Instead Brett Prebble used some initiative. He took the lead a long way from home and won by over four lengths.

Good jockeys use their initiative.
Good jockeys make things happen.

Inferior jockeys let things happen.
Inferior jockeys blame bad luck.

What was even more impressive about the win was that Sylvaner dropped back in distance from 2024 metres.

After the race the starting price of $5.00 looked very generous. But those odds were not particularly generous at all. Considerably less than one in five horses starting at that price and dropping back in distance from 2000 metres to 1600 metres win.

What a way to lose - again!

At Eagle Farm classy filly Fetes Galantes was travelling comfortably in the lead in the $300,000 3YO Group 2 Grand Prix Stakes when at the 900 her saddle shifted forward again. That was the end of the race for the well supported filly who started at $3.50.

Only the previous week her saddle shifted and she finished last. Connections and stewards have a duty to ensure this does not happen again. Twice in two weeks is too much.

Was Reenact the "class horse" of the race?

The above $300,000 race was won by Reenact who hit the lead at the 150 and bolted in by over four lengths. Connections were then only too quick to point out he was the class runner of the field.

Tell you what. "Class runner" or not, his starting price of $6.00 was poor value (even worse value was the $4.80 on SuperTab). The smart punters we know would not be interested in taking those short odds about a horse who has been a consistent non-winner.

From 22 starts he had managed just two wins and a paltry three placings. He had finished in the first three less than 25% of the time. It is backing horses like that at short odds that helps punters lose their money.

Those horses of course are fine for connections if they can occasionally win a big money race provided connections are not actually regularly betting on the animal.

Reenact is a regally bred three year old colt like (sire Marscay out of a Gulch mare.) Based on today's market there should be a very substantial stud or resale value. So for the ordinary punter it can help to understand why well bred, low win and place strike rate colts are talked up.

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Experts after the event
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