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Punt to Win |
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25/4/2003 edition Doncaster Handicap On a day when over $7,500,000 in prizemoney was up for grabs, Randwick served up a biased Slow rated track. Horses had to be hard up against the rails or they had no chance. The irony was that punters could have gone to the track, level staked the favourites at starting price and made a nice profit. There would have been 10 bets. The winners were Gullcatcher $5.00, Fatoon $2.60, Snowland $4.00, and Bollinger $3.50. That's 51% profit on turnover. Of course, we all know if that is done each week there will be a significant long term loss on turnover. The worst bet of the day had to be Lonhro which was backed in on track from a $2.50 to $2.10 in the Doncaster Handicap. How could you possibly take $2.10 in that field of 15 with many other runners better handicapped and all primed for the $2,400,000 handicap? Lonhro also usually gets back in his races and going wide to get a run in the home straight was a massive disadvantage, a no go zone on Saturday. The Gai Waterhouse trained 4YO gelding Grand Armee started at $13.00 and was an impressive winner by over three lengths. Grand Armee had never raced on a track rated worse than good. That was a big query on the rain affected Slow rated track at Randwick. However Grand Armee only had to carry 51.5kg. Grand Armee's best win was also only at Group 3 level - not a Group1 handicap or weight for age race like Lonhro. But that's precisely what handicaps are all about - reducing the winning chances of the best horses in the race like five times Group 1 winner Lonhro, who had to carry 57.5kg. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
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