24/9/2004 edition

Horse Racing Handicapping
Betting Tips

Weight is the great evener in racing. As a horse rises in weight its chances of winning decreases in handicaps. When horses in handicaps are asked to carry around 58kg. or more they are often risky bets.

There is a typical media cliché:

"The horse has the class so it deserves the weight." The media tipster then selects the horse which then goes on to lose. Throw in the double whammy of a weight rise and a poor barrier compared to the horse's last start and you are often looking at a very risky betting proposition. 

You will regularly find horses start as short price favourites after significant weight rises and find that they cannot handle the increased weight. You might find a horse tipped to bowl along in front and win easily like it did at its previous start the week before. However don't dismiss the weight rise from say 56.5kg. to 58.5kg. What will often happen is the horse will bowl along in front, but weaken in the straight and be comfortably beaten. Give the horse 56.5kg. again and the result may well have been another win.

There is a very common rule used by many computer programmes and form analysts. It assumes that 1.5kg equals one length.
Increase a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg and it will perform one length worse, all other factors being equal.
Decrease a horse's handicap weight by 1.5kg and it will perform one length better, all other factors being equal.
This rule is not accurate.
    
Without going into all the complexities, the following guidelines are far more important. If followed you will back many more winners and avoid backing many losers.

The more weight a horse has to carry, the more significant a small weight rise is. 
The less weight a horse has to carry, the less significant a large weight rise is.  

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown Hillside betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/9/2004
Punt to Win index

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