24/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Damien Oliver rides another value winner

In the 1600 metres Open Handicap at Moonee Valley he rode Madame Plume to perfection. It looked so simple. She was settled on the speed, hit the lead on the home turn and went away for a very good win, eased down near the line.

The mare was fitter after her first up run, and had a great record on rain affected tracks. Her last run over the distance, 1600 metres, was a strong fourth, beaten under a length in Mares Group 2 company in Adelaide. At her starting price of $4.00 she was definite value.

Not so the favourite, Thong Classsic, who started at the prohibitive odds of only $2.30. He defeated Madame Plume in brilliant fashion two weeks earlier after encountering major difficulties in the straight. However he was meeting Madame Plume 2.5kg. worse off at the weights for a 2.3 lengths win.

This meant Thong Classic was no certainty. In a race lacking depth $3.00 looked a good price. You could certainly anticipate Thong Classic winning once in every three times - 33% of the time, but not around 44% of the time which was needed to justify a price of $2.30.
Thong Classic finished third.

First up - beware short odds

1. Undefeated three year old colt Portsmouth, trained by Miles Plumb, resumed from a spell of three months last Saturday at Moonee Valley. He was sent out the $2.60 favourite in the 1000 metres 3YO Colts and Geldings Listed race.

Portsmouth raced handy but weakened right out of it to finish second last, beaten six lengths.

First up - beware short odds

2. At Cheltenham Saturday Fever, trained by Tony McEvoy, resumed from a spell of three months. He was sent out the $1.90 favourite in the 1250 metres 3YO Open Handicap.

From barrier 10 he worked hard early out wide to get a position on the pace. He put in a strong run and finished second. Not good enough for punters taking $1.90. They have to get it right more than 50% of the time just to break even.

First up - beware short odds

3. Last Sunday at Caulfield, Princesa, also trained by Tony McEvoy, resumed from a spell of five months in an 1100 metres 4YO and UP Class 6 Handicap. This lightly raced four year old mare had only had two previous starts.

She defeated Aragonce at Flemington in a 3YO Fillies Open in March this year. Aragonce won an Open Handicap at Moonee Valley last Saturday. No doubt that win helped convince punters that Princesa was close to a certainty first up the following day.

Damien Oliver reportedly told trainer Tony McEvoy he wasn't disappointed with Princesa's run as the mare raced too fresh and wouldn't come back under him.

I'm sure the punters who sent her out the $1.70 favourite only to watch her finish third, beaten a length by Generalissimo, who finished right over the top of them starting at $8.50 after running down the track in his previous race when he started favourite would be pleased to know that!

Anyone who took the $1.70 has to back winners 60% of the time just to break even. That looks a pretty tough task at the best of times, let alone backing horses resuming from a spell.

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Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow

Top Odds Are Important

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