24/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Saturday maiden race at Eagle Farm!

Eagle Farm put on a very poor Saturday meeting last week, so poor they even ran a maiden on it! Maiden races tend to be very ordinary betting affairs.

Gilgurry, who had failed to win a race from five starts, was sent out the odds on favourite. It's not our idea of successful punting to take short odds on a horse who is contesting a maiden because it has not yet won a race. From barrier five this ordinary conveyance did not have the speed to obtain a position and leading Brisbane jockey Scott Seamer had him wide throughout in this 10 horse affair. He failed to run a place.

The winner, Kananga, from barrier 10 was also wide, so that removes the excuse for Gilgurry's failure. It was interesting to see bolter Waterspray finish second. He paid $5.20 for the place. It was the three year old gelding's third race start. 10 days earlier he finished fourteenth of 14 in a similar event. The trainer? John Hawkes. Fits in with what we have been saying about Hawkes' trained horses for some time now.

1000 metres races - weight matters

Bomber Bill carrying 60kg. was first up at Moonee Valley last Saturday after a spell of five months. He showed good early pace but weakened badly and finished last in the six horse field.

Some media pundits were pushing the horse, who rated highly on conventional weight ratings. But it was expecting a bit much of a six year old with top weight of 60kg. to win first up. Especially as the track was also rated Slow and the horse has been much better on top of the ground.

When Bomber Bill's trainer, Russell Cameron, who also had Aragonce in the race, was asked which horse he preferred, he simply replied, "Toss a coin." Does that mean "I am not giving anything away."
Aragonce firmed from $3.00 to $2.80 and won.

Jo McKinnon's price assessment

At Warwick Farm in a 1200 metres Listed race, five year old mare Air She Goes was a very short priced favourite on the tote. Her starting price in the real betting ring, with the bookmakers was $3.80. Still poor value. Instead of drawing attention to the poor odds the mare was on the tote, Jo said Air She Goes was, ".. dominating the market and rightfully so at $2.10."

Would Jo have taken the $2.10 when $3.80 was available in the bookmakers' betting ring?

There was also a small matter of the mare rising in weight by two kilos to 57kg. Air She Goes settled on the speed, but folded over the last 200 and finished last.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
Jockey watch
Get value - great horses to take on
Weight does matter
First up "good things"
And more...

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