24/5/2002 edition

Value Betting
Bet Smart

To get successful betting results over the long term you must obtain value. That also means being prepared to not back plenty of selections because the odds are just not there. Sure you will miss some winners, but because you are getting below the true winning chances, the losers will more than wipe out any profits made from backing the winners.

Recently we had some feedback which went along the lines:

".. it annoys me when you continually pick on a short price horse that gets rolled and you say it didn't come into your ratings price range and you should feel good that you didn't back it. That is negative, negative. ...you should be telling us of the overlay winners you got... That is positive, positive."

We don't regard it as negative to point out how money is being saved by not backing poor value horses. That is how professionals are successful. They do not pick a selection and back it at any price. If the horse is below the minimum odds they see as fair value they are prepared to leave it alone.

Our specials had another huge Saturday. In our news we listed the bets we had when our value odds were obtained.

It would hardly have been negative to add that we liked Provokes at Rosehill but wanted $4.00 and were not interested in backing it at $2.70 so saved our money.

Similarly, it would not have been negative to add that we liked Royal Guardian at Caulfield but wanted $6.00 and were not interested in backing it at $3.80 so saved our money.

That's exactly what smart betting is all about.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horseracing track bias
Favourites - bet for value
Bookmaker betting odds update
Value betting - bet smart
Ten betting tips to back winners
Money talks - Saturday's plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/5/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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