24/3/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 17th. March.

Rosehill - Ranvet Stakes Day
Track: Good

R1 $65,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Crosswise
Result: first
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctuation: $1.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Danny Williams

R2 $140,000 3YO and upward. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Malcolm
Result: first
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

R5 $400,000 3YO and upward. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Desert War
Result: first
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Sandown Hillside: Track Dead

R2 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Juste Momente
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Steven Arnold
Trainer: Danny O'Brien

R4 $200,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Like It Is
Result: first
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Darren Weir

Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Princess Marizza
Result: second
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh
Winner: Scuderia
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R3 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Aprisa
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.00
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Spirit Of Tara
Starting price: $8.50
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gerald Ryan

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make a living win betting horses
Get those betting odds
The 70% Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 17/3/2007
Betting favourites in small field - 10/3/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 17/3/2007 - Rosehill & Sandown
Betting tips from the track: 10/3/2007 - Randwick & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/3/2007
Punt to Win index

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