24/1/2003 edition

Tote Betting for Value

Last Saturday on Sky Racing, three minutes before the start of the first race at Caulfield, a very ordinary seven mares affair, their "expert" told us there was value on the tote for:

Amah Dramas $5.80
Raven's Pal $5.20
Nas Princess $8.50
Olivia's Dream $21.00 - "You are shopping value if you do fancy it."

By any normal understanding of the English language if you are getting value backing horses you are getting fair odds. That means you will not lose long term getting those odds.

Since when does the tote a punters' give punters four "value" bets in a field of seven? Since when does the tote set prices to a market of 80% instead of 120%?

Presumably the Sky Racing "expert" was comparing the tote odds with the bookmaker odds. Even so, that runs into difficulties:

1. The tote odds are not fixed even though media commentators often seem to talk as if they are.

2. These "experts" should know that a horse is often poor value in the bookmakers' betting ring and on the tote, irrespective of where the better odds are.

3. There also appears to be a conflict of interest. Sky Racing and the New South Wales TAB are part of the same business. While we're certainly not saying it is policy, if Sky Racing hosts were to tell punters there is plenty of value on the New South Wales tote, then that would presumably increase the tote turnover and the profit of the New South Wales TAB.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting for value
Tote betting "value"
Betting tips from Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Victoria Park, Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/1/2003
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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