Horse Racing Form Analysis

Identifying false favourites

With laying horses on betting exchanges gaining increased popularity, being able to consistently identify false favourites can make some punters a lot of money.

So let's have a look in detail at an example of a false favourite from a few years ago, which is just as relevant today:

Expelled was sent out a short priced $2.80 favourite in a Fillies and Mares Class 6 over 1200 metres at Eagle Farm. Expelled was a very poor bet at the odds and clearly a false favourite. Consider these points:

1. Expelled was a backmarker. As a general rule, taking $2.80 about backmarkers is asking for trouble. In a field of 11 it looked very skinny odds.

2. Expelled also had barrier 10, with the possibility of not only being well back in the field, but even trapped wide.

3. Following two runs in her campaign at 1200 metres and 1350 metres, Expelled was dropping back to 1200 metres. Backing a horse at short odds dropping back in distance like that is generally asking for trouble.

4. Expelled had won dropping back in distance before. She had won over 1350 metres and then won over 1200 metres at her next start four weeks later, but that is a genuine freshen up.

5. But this time Expelled was dropped back in distance from 1350 metres to 1200 metres at her next start only two weeks later. She had finished an eye catching second over 1350 metres, hitting the line hard after settling well back in the field. The punters who took $2.80 expected her to settle well back in the field over the 1200 metres and then win. That is difficult enough for an on pace/leader to manage. For a backmarker - just about forget it. For a backmarker dropping back in distance from 1350 metres to 1200 metres - no way. $2.80 were absolutely crazy odds!

As the race panned out, Expelled settled well back last in the field, and was about 10 lengths off the pace at the home turn. The filly made up some ground in the straight, but still finished a well beaten eighth.