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23/8/2008
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Saturday, 9th. August.
Rosehill: Track Slow
R1 $70,000 3YO and upward. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Kettledrum
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Enzedex Eagle
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Chris Waller
R2 $70,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst84. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sequinella
Result: second
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Fashion Street
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Rodney Northam
R5 $125,000 3YO. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Anatomica
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Duporth
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.40
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Flemington: Track Dead
R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1410 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Zapurple
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Rodney Douglas
Winner: Shine On Anna
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes
Morphettville: Track Slow
R1 $22,000 Fillies & Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Symphony Miss
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Dom Tourneur
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Tevez
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Trainer: Gary Kennewell
R2 $34,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Verco Road
Result: second
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Dion Koch
Winner: Life To The Full
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $8.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Karina O'Sullivan
R4 $22,000 Rst91. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dollops
Result: third
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Jolly
Winner: Spartan Idol
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.70
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Richard Jolly
This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting systems - can you be a winner?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Horses Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 16/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 9/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 2/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 16/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 9/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 2/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/8/2008
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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