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23/8/2002 edition

Melbourne Cup
All In Betting

Here are some odds available about horses winning the Melbourne Cup, to be run at Flemington racetrack on the first Tuesday of November. After the odds we give the market percentage for those odds.

Magical Miss $11.00 9.09%
Universal Prince $13.00 7.69%
Vinnie Roe $13.00 7.69%
Distinctly Secret $17.00 5.88%
Don Eduardo $17.00 5.88%
Give The Slip $17.00 5.88%
Rain Gauge $17.00 5.88%
Republic Lass $17.00 5.88%
Carnegie Express $21.00 4.76%

The many horses at longer odds have not been given here.

Just the nine quoted horses above make nearly 60%. But there will be 24 runners in the race, not nine. Assuming those nine runners are in the Melbourne Cup field (highly unlikely) in a market that gives the correct chances of a winner, a market of 100%, that leaves only 40% for the other 15 runners.

The fact is we're being given a betting market of hundreds of per cent when the true market and chances of a winner is only 100%.

So much can go wrong with a horse between now and the first week of November. If your horse doesn't run in the Melbourne Cup for any reason, 100% of your bet is lost.

Let's face it. The majority of horses on offer will not even make the final field. Money bet on those horses has been thrown away. As for horses like Magical Miss, Universal Prince and Rain Gauge - should everything go well with them over the next three months, there is every possibility you may get better odds about them on raceday. That's without having your money tied up for three months and being on a hiding to nothing should anything go amiss with the horse.

Surely you need to know at least the track conditions, the final field and form of the runners before making an informed bet.

We suggest leaving this form of betting alone.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Bel Esprit is back - soft win
Spring Carnival horses
Shogun Lodge betting tip
Melbourne Cup all in betting
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 16/8/2002
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Banyan Bay 23.00 37.80 $1480
Grumans 31.70 36.90 $520
Key To My Dreams 13.30 16.70 $340
Jon Ledecky 10.60 13.00 $240

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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